World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round

Mar 25, 2022 at 2am UK

Mexico
0 - 0
USA

Alvarez (21'), Martin (39'), Vega (90+1')

Robinson (9'), Yedlin (26'), Weah (39')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - North Central America clash between Mexico and USA, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mexico

Last Six:

Last Game: Mexico 0-0 Ecuador
Monday, June 6 at 12.30am in International Friendlies

Next Game: Mexico vs. Suriname
Sunday, June 12 at 3am in CONCACAF Nations League

USA

Last Six:

Last Game: USA 0-0 Uruguay
Sunday, June 5 at 10pm in International Friendlies

Next Game: USA vs. Grenada
Saturday, June 11 at 3am in CONCACAF Nations League

Neither side look like the CONCACAF giants that we have seen through the years, although they each have enough quality in attack to make a difference. At an altitude of 2,200 metres above sea level, the Azteca is not the easiest venue to play in, but El Tri have drawn two fixtures there in this qualifying round, and we anticipate a stalemate between these sides who have so much at stake. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 50.21%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for USA had a probability of 23.05%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for a USA win it was 0-1 (8.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Mexico	Draw	USA
50.21%	26.74%	23.05%

Both teams to score 44.95%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.28%

58.72%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.75%

79.25%

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.48%

23.52%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.43%

57.57%

USA Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.78%

41.22%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.25%

77.76%

Score Analysis

Mexico 50.2%

USA 23.05%

Draw 26.73%

Mexico	Draw	USA
1-0 @ 14.03% 2-0 @ 10.15% 2-1 @ 9% 3-0 @ 4.9% 3-1 @ 4.34% 3-2 @ 1.92% 4-0 @ 1.77% 4-1 @ 1.57% Other @ 2.52% Total : 50.2%	1-1 @ 12.43% 0-0 @ 9.7% 2-2 @ 3.99% Other @ 0.62% Total : 26.73%	0-1 @ 8.59% 1-2 @ 5.51% 0-2 @ 3.81% 1-3 @ 1.63% 2-3 @ 1.18% 0-3 @ 1.13% Other @ 1.21% Total : 23.05%