World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round

Jan 28, 2022 at 12am UK

Independence Park

Jamaica
1 - 2
Mexico

Johnson (50')
Lowe (45+2')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Martin (81'), Vega (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - North Central America clash between Jamaica and Mexico, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Mexico are without the services of a couple of key players and that could play into the hands of a Jamaican side in need of points, but with three of their last four competitive matches ending level, we think that the Reggae Boyz may have to settle for another draw on Thursday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 42.76%. A win for Jamaica had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Jamaica win was 1-0 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.

Result
Jamaica	Draw	Mexico
30.73%	26.51%	42.76%

Both teams to score 51.19%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.54%

53.45%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.02%

74.98%

Jamaica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.04%

31.96%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.59%

68.41%

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.23%

24.77%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.66%

59.34%

Score Analysis

Jamaica 30.73%

Mexico 42.75%

Draw 26.51%

Jamaica	Draw	Mexico
1-0 @ 9.03% 2-1 @ 7.19% 2-0 @ 5.15% 3-1 @ 2.73% 3-0 @ 1.96% 3-2 @ 1.91% Other @ 2.76% Total : 30.73%	1-1 @ 12.6% 0-0 @ 7.92% 2-2 @ 5.02% Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.51%	0-1 @ 11.04% 1-2 @ 8.79% 0-2 @ 7.71% 1-3 @ 4.09% 0-3 @ 3.59% 2-3 @ 2.33% 1-4 @ 1.43% 0-4 @ 1.25% Other @ 2.52% Total : 42.75%