Bitter CONCACAF rivals Mexico and the USA will kick off the final window of qualifying for World Cup 2022 on Thursday at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
Both teams are tied for second in the Octagon at 21 points, as El Tri collected eight out of a possible nine points in the last qualification window, while The Yanks blanked Honduras 3-0 back in February in the cold Minnesota climate.
Match preview
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The road to Qatar has been anything but smooth for Gerardo Martino and his team, who have lost more matches in this qualification cycle (two) than they did in their entire 2018 qualifying campaign.
Some late heroics have put the 11-time CONCACAF Gold Cup champions in a strong position to return to the World Cup, scoring twice in the final 10 minutes in a comeback victory (2-1) over Jamaica, and then firing home a winner from the penalty spot with 10 minutes remaining to defeat Panama 1-0.
A win along with a loss by Costa Rica and the Panamanians on Thursday would guarantee the Mexicans make it into the finals for an eighth successive campaign, having been knocked out in the Round of 16 of every World Cup since 1994.
Martino has tried to bring a Tiki-taka brand of football to Mexico, which has not been as successful as it was for years at Barcelona, the side which he led to a Supercopa de Espana title in 2013.
The former Argentina boss is under intense scrutiny to get more out of his side, with numerous reports suggesting that even if he helps guide this team to the finals, he might be sacked and replaced by Miguel Herrera, who coached El Tri to the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.
Two of their final three qualifying fixtures will be played at the famous Estadio Azteca, one of the most challenging places to play and a venue that has been extremely kind to El Tri through the years.
The altitude and large crowds at that venue seem to give the home side a decided advantage, with the Mexicans unbeaten there since 2013 when they dropped a 2-1 decision to Honduras.
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The 2022 qualification campaign for Stars and Stripes has been all about rectifying past mistakes which saw them miss out on this competition four years ago.
While Gregg Berhalter is only four points away from assuring this team return to the finals, there are still plenty of questions surrounding the Americans and their performances so far in the Octagon.
Two of their final three fixtures will be on the road, where this side have struggled, winning only one of their previous five matches played away from home.
Berhalter has a youthful group with many players going through a qualifying cycle for the first time, yet there is plenty of big-game experience for him to choose from, with individuals at every position who are currently featuring for some top sides in Europe.
Like the Mexicans, a victory on Thursday, combined with a defeat for both Costa Rica and Panama would see the US book a place in Qatar, but it would also extend their winning run against El Tri to four straight games, which would be the longest such streak for The Yanks against Mexico.
The reigning CONCACAF Nations League and Gold Cup champions are one of only 11 teams to have come out of the Azteca with a result, beating Mexico 1-0 in a friendly back in 2013, when Michael Orozco scored with 10 minutes to play to give Jurgen Klinsmann's side a famous victory.
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Team News
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Raul Jimenez rescued three points for Mexico in their previous qualifier, scoring from the penalty spot, and he has a chance to move into seventh all-time in goals for his country if he finds the back of the net on Thursday.
The Wolverhampton Wanderers striker is currently in a four-way tie alongside Luis Garcia, Luis Flores and former Real Madrid forward Hugo Sanchez with 29 goals for his country.
Goals from Henry Martin and Alexis Vega powered El Tri to a come from behind victory away to Jamaica in the previous qualification window.
Hirving Lozano has tallied four times at club level for Napoli this season, and Jesus Corona is second in assists domestically for Sevilla with two.
Hector Moreno has a chance to surpass Ramon Ramirez for eighth in all-time appearances for the Mexicans, while goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa can inch a little closer to Jorge Campos for sixth in career caps for Mexico, as the Club America man trails the former El Tri first-choice keeper by five in that department.
The Americans will be missing several key players for this contest, including fullback Sergino Dest, who suffered a hamstring injury in Barcelona's 2-1 victory last week over Galatasaray in the Europa League.
Juventus midfielder Weston McKennie is out with a foot fracture, and the soon-to-be Arsenal goalkeeper Matt Turner will miss this match with an ankle issue.
Giovanni Reyna is back in the squad, looking to make his first appearance for the national team since featuring in their 0-0 draw versus El Salvador last September, while Aaron Long and Erik Palmer-Brown will hope to see the field for the US in qualifying for the first time.
Jordan Pefok has earned a well-deserved call-up for the senior side, as the Young Boys striker is lighting it up in Switzerland at the moment, leading the Swiss Super League in goals with 17, while Brenden Aaronson has tallied three times domestically for RB Salzburg.
Christian Pulisic scored once in each leg for Chelsea in their Champions League victory over Lille, and he can move into a tie with Eddie Johnson for seventh in all-time goals for the US should he score on Thursday.
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; J. Araujo, Montes, Moreno, Arteaga; Herrera, Alvarez, Pizarro; Lozano, Jimenez, Corona
USA possible starting lineup:
Steffen; Cannon, Zimmerman, M. Robinson, Sands; Adams, Acosta, Musah; Reyna, Ferreira, Pulisic
We say: Mexico 1-1 USA
Neither side look like the CONCACAF giants that we have seen through the years, although they each have enough quality in attack to make a difference.
At an altitude of 2,200 metres above sea level, the Azteca is not the easiest venue to play in, but El Tri have drawn two fixtures there in this qualifying round, and we anticipate a stalemate between these sides who have so much at stake.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 50.21%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for USA had a probability of 23.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for a USA win it was 0-1 (8.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
