World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round

Mar 28, 2022 at 12am UK

USA
5 - 1
Panama

Pulisic (17' pen., 45+4' pen., 65'), Arriola (23'), Ferreira (27')
Pulisic (69'), Long (85')

FT(HT: 4-0)

Godoy (86')
Godoy (45+3'), Blackburn (45+3'), Davis (57')

USA mistakenly celebrate qualification for World Cup

USA momentarily celebrated qualifying for the World Cup on Sunday night, even though they have not mathematically secured their position in Qatar.

Mar 28, 14:34

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's World Cup Qualifying - North Central America clash between USA and Panama, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

USA

Last Six:

Last Game: USA 0-0 Uruguay
Sunday, June 5 at 10pm in International Friendlies

Next Game: USA vs. Grenada
Saturday, June 11 at 3am in CONCACAF Nations League

Panama

Last Six:

Last Game: Panama 1-0 Canada
Thursday, March 31 at 2.05am in World Cup Qualifying - North Central America

Next Game: Panama vs. Martinique
Friday, June 10 at 1am in CONCACAF Nations League

The US have only lost twice at home to Panama in their entire history, but we do not anticipate them dropping a third this weekend. Los Canaleros desperately need points, which could leave them exposed to a few counters, and we do not expect this American team to miss those chances like they did earlier this week in Mexico. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 62.04%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Panama had a probability of 15.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.4%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Panama win it was 0-1 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that USA would win this match.

Result
USA	Draw	Panama
62.04%	22.48%	15.47%

Both teams to score 44.89%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.57%

52.43%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.89%

74.1%

USA Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.57%

16.42%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.91%

46.09%

Panama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.71%

46.29%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.05%

81.94%

Score Analysis

USA 62.04%

Panama 15.47%

Draw 22.47%

USA	Draw	Panama
1-0 @ 13.73% 2-0 @ 12.4% 2-1 @ 9.56% 3-0 @ 7.47% 3-1 @ 5.75% 4-0 @ 3.37% 4-1 @ 2.6% 3-2 @ 2.22% 5-0 @ 1.22% 4-2 @ 1% 5-1 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.78% Total : 62.04%	1-1 @ 10.57% 0-0 @ 7.6% 2-2 @ 3.68% Other @ 0.62% Total : 22.47%	0-1 @ 5.86% 1-2 @ 4.07% 0-2 @ 2.26% 1-3 @ 1.05% 2-3 @ 0.95% Other @ 1.3% Total : 15.47%