World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round

Jan 30, 2022 at 8.05pm UK

BMO Field

Canada
2 - 0
USA

Larin (7'), Adekugbe (90+5')
Vitoria (31'), Buchanan (88')

FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's World Cup Qualifying - North Central America clash between Canada and USA, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Even without arguably their two most valuable players, the Canadians looked more than comfortable in their previous encounter, and with the pace of Buchanan plus the goalscoring instincts of Jonathan David, the Americans are likely to have their hands full trying to contend with a squad that may be as deep and talented as they have ever been. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 58.71%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for USA had a probability of 16.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.41%) and 2-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.27%), while for a USA win it was 0-1 (6.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Canada would win this match.

Result
Canada	Draw	USA
58.71%	24.5%	16.79%

Both teams to score 42.07%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.28%

57.72%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.53%

78.47%

Canada Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.43%

19.57%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.51%

51.5%

USA Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.31%

47.7%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17%

83.01%

Score Analysis

Canada 58.7%

USA 16.79%

Draw 24.5%

Canada	Draw	USA
1-0 @ 15.22% 2-0 @ 12.41% 2-1 @ 9.19% 3-0 @ 6.75% 3-1 @ 5% 4-0 @ 2.75% 4-1 @ 2.04% 3-2 @ 1.85% Other @ 3.48% Total : 58.7%	1-1 @ 11.27% 0-0 @ 9.34% 2-2 @ 3.4% Other @ 0.49% Total : 24.5%	0-1 @ 6.91% 1-2 @ 4.17% 0-2 @ 2.56% 1-3 @ 1.03% Other @ 2.12% Total : 16.79%