World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round

Mar 31, 2022 at 2.05am UK

Costa Rica
2 - 0
USA

Pablo Vargas (51'), Contreras (59')
Mora (63'), Galo (82')

FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - North Central America clash between Costa Rica and USA, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Costa Rica

Last Six:

Last Game: Costa Rica 2-0 Martinique
Sunday, June 5 at 6pm in CONCACAF Nations League

Next Game: Martinique vs. Costa Rica
Friday, March 24 at 11pm in CONCACAF Nations League

USA

Last Six:

Last Game: USA 0-0 Uruguay
Sunday, June 5 at 10pm in International Friendlies

Next Game: USA vs. Grenada
Saturday, June 11 at 3am in CONCACAF Nations League

These teams combined for seven goals on Sunday, but it would take something miraculous for the Americans to drop out of the top three, and the Costa Ricans know that they are likely to be headed to the inter-confederation playoffs. When considering all of that, we could see plenty of new faces hit the field for each side in what might be a cagey affair, with both managers knowing that there are likely more important games for them on the horizon. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Costa Rica win with a probability of 42%. A win for USA had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Costa Rica win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest USA win was 0-1 (8.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Costa Rica would win this match.

Result
Costa Rica	Draw	USA
42%	26.05%	31.95%

Both teams to score 53.15%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.84%

51.15%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27%

73%

Costa Rica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.86%

24.13%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.56%

58.44%

USA Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.05%

29.94%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.94%

66.05%

Score Analysis

Costa Rica 41.99%

USA 31.95%

Draw 26.04%

Costa Rica	Draw	USA
1-0 @ 10.27% 2-1 @ 8.81% 2-0 @ 7.3% 3-1 @ 4.17% 3-0 @ 3.46% 3-2 @ 2.52% 4-1 @ 1.48% 4-0 @ 1.23% Other @ 2.75% Total : 41.99%	1-1 @ 12.38% 0-0 @ 7.23% 2-2 @ 5.31% 3-3 @ 1.01% Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.04%	0-1 @ 8.71% 1-2 @ 7.47% 0-2 @ 5.25% 1-3 @ 3% 2-3 @ 2.13% 0-3 @ 2.11% 1-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.36% Total : 31.95%