Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aberdeen win with a probability of 61.1%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Kilmarnock had a probability of 16.57%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aberdeen win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.66%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Kilmarnock win it was 0-1 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aberdeen would win this match.
Result | ||
Aberdeen | Draw | Kilmarnock |
61.1% ( 0) | 22.33% | 16.57% |
Both teams to score 47.62% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.99% ( 0) | 50.01% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.01% ( 0) | 71.99% ( 0) |
Aberdeen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.1% ( 0) | 15.91% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.85% ( 0) | 45.15% |
Kilmarnock Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.63% ( 0) | 43.37% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.39% | 79.61% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Aberdeen | Draw | Kilmarnock |
1-0 @ 12.68% 2-0 @ 11.66% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.74% 3-0 @ 7.15% 3-1 @ 5.97% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.28% 4-1 @ 2.74% 3-2 @ 2.49% 5-0 @ 1.21% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.15% 5-1 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.02% Total : 61.1% | 1-1 @ 10.59% 0-0 @ 6.9% 2-2 @ 4.07% Other @ 0.77% Total : 22.32% | 0-1 @ 5.76% 1-2 @ 4.43% 0-2 @ 2.41% 1-3 @ 1.23% 2-3 @ 1.13% Other @ 1.61% Total : 16.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Celtic | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 4 | 31 | 34 |
2 | Aberdeen | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 31 |
3 | RangersRangers | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 23 |
4 | Dundee UnitedDundee Utd | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 20 |
5 | Motherwell | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 19 |
6 | St Mirren | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 18 |
7 | Dundee | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 15 |
8 | Ross County | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 15 |
9 | St Johnstone | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 13 |
10 | Kilmarnock | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 12 |
11 | Hearts | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 9 |
12 | Hibernian | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 8 |
> Scottish Premiership Full Table |