Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 39.13%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.
Result | ||
Estoril Praia | Draw | Chaves |
39.13% ( -2.85) | 26.75% ( 0.47) | 34.12% ( 2.38) |
Both teams to score 51.51% ( -0.82) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.47% ( -1.35) | 53.53% ( 1.34) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.96% ( -1.15) | 75.04% ( 1.14) |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.27% ( -2.13) | 26.72% ( 2.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.01% ( -2.89) | 61.99% ( 2.89) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.29% ( 0.89) | 29.7% ( -0.9) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.24% ( 1.08) | 65.76% ( -1.08) |
Score Analysis |
Estoril Praia | Draw | Chaves |
1-0 @ 10.47% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 8.39% ( -0.38) 2-0 @ 6.91% ( -0.49) 3-1 @ 3.69% ( -0.41) 3-0 @ 3.04% ( -0.42) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.19) 4-1 @ 1.22% ( -0.22) 4-0 @ 1% ( -0.21) Other @ 2.16% Total : 39.12% | 1-1 @ 12.71% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 7.94% ( 0.41) 2-2 @ 5.09% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.74% | 0-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.72) 1-2 @ 7.72% ( 0.32) 0-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.57) 1-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.2) 0-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.28) 2-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.42% Total : 34.12% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 23 | 21 |
2 | Porto | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
3 | Benfica | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 13 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 12 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 12 |
6 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
7 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
10 | Casa Pia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
12 | AVS | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
13 | AroucaArouca | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 6 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 6 |
15 | BoavistaBoavista | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
16 | Nacional | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
17 | Estrela Amadora | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 0 |
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