Primeira Liga | Gameweek 17

Jan 13, 2024 at 6pm UK

Estadio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Chaves
0 - 3
Sporting Lisbon

Correia (62')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Paulinho (44'), Trincao (52'), Goncalves (56')
Coates (71'), Gyokeres (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Chaves and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chaves

All competitions

Last Game: Famalicao 2-2 Chaves
Sunday, January 7 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 4-0 Tondela
Tuesday, January 9 at 6.45pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Chaves 1-3 Sporting Lisbon

While Sporting's form on the road this season has not been as impressive as their home record, this match feels like it should be a guaranteed three points for the Lions. Chaves have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, particularly at home, but we feel they will not be able to contain the champions-elect in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 69.69%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 12.41%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.92%) and 1-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.44%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (3.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Chaves	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
12.41% ( -0.05)	17.9% ( -0.05)	69.69% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 51.49% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.69% (

0.08)

39.3% (

-0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.36% (

0.09)

61.64% (

-0.09)

Chaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.31% (

-0.03)

42.68% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.98% (

-0.03)

79.02% (

0.03)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.83% (

0.05)

10.16% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.6% (

0.11)

33.4% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Chaves 12.41%

Sporting Lisbon 69.68%

Draw 17.9%

Chaves	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
1-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.17% ( -0) 3-1 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 1.37% Total : 12.41%	1-1 @ 8.44% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.34% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.01% Total : 17.9%	0-2 @ 11.33% 0-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.65% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 8.64% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 7.36% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 4.94% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 4.21% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 3.13% ( 0) 0-5 @ 2.26% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 1.92% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.79% ( 0) Other @ 4.53% Total : 69.68%