Primeira Liga | Gameweek 15
Dec 29, 2023 at 8.45pm UK
Estadio Do Dragao
Porto1 - 0Chaves
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Porto 2-1 Leixoes
Saturday, December 23 at 8.30pm in Taca da Liga
Saturday, December 23 at 8.30pm in Taca da Liga
Last Game: Chaves 1-3 Casa Pia
Sunday, December 17 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Sunday, December 17 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
We said: Porto 3-0 Chaves
Having only beaten Porto once in 40 encounters and with just three wins in 14 league matches this season, it is difficult to make much of a case for Chaves in this match. Porto have been excellent at home over the last couple of months, and we fancy them to deliver a dominant display in this one. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 79.72%. A draw had a probability of 13.4% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 6.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.27%) and 1-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.35%), while for a Chaves win it was 0-1 (2.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Chaves |
79.72% ( 1.27) | 13.36% ( -0.47) | 6.92% ( -0.8) |
| Both teams to score 45.26% ( -2.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.68% ( -0.9) | 35.31% ( 0.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.66% ( -1.01) | 57.34% ( 1.01) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.04% ( 0.06) | 6.96% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 74.49% ( 0.17) | 25.5% ( -0.17) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.64% ( -2.73) | 51.35% ( 2.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 14.42% ( -1.9) | 85.58% ( 1.89) |
| Score Analysis |
Porto 79.71%
Chaves 6.92%
Draw 13.36%
| Porto | Draw | Chaves |
| 2-0 @ 12.69% ( 0.65) 3-0 @ 11.27% ( 0.61)1-0 @ 9.52% ( 0.46)2-1 @ 8.46% ( -0.23)3-1 @ 7.51% ( -0.18)4-0 @ 7.51% ( 0.43)4-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.1)5-0 @ 4% ( 0.24)5-1 @ 2.67% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.27)6-0 @ 1.78% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.17)6-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.92% Total : 79.71% | 1-1 @ 6.35% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 3.57% ( 0.16)2-2 @ 2.82% ( -0.31)Other @ 0.62% Total : 13.36% | 0-1 @ 2.38% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.24)Other @ 2.42% Total : 6.92% |
How you voted: Porto vs Chaves
Porto
93.3%Draw
6.7%Chaves
0.0%30
Head to Head
Mar 4, 2023 8.30pm
Dec 8, 2022 7pm
Sep 10, 2022 8.30pm
Aug 11, 2018 9pm
Gameweek 1
Porto
5-0
Chaves
