Taca da Liga | Group Stage
Dec 23, 2023 at 6pm UK
Estadio Joao Cardoso
Tondela1 - 2Sporting Lisbon
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Torreense 1-1 Tondela (2-4 pen.)
Sunday, November 26 at 5pm in Taca de Portugal
Sunday, November 26 at 5pm in Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-0 Porto
Monday, December 18 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Monday, December 18 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
We said: Tondela 1-3 Sporting Lisbon
Sporting are heavily fancied to get through to the semi-final of this competition and will be aware of the importance of keeping their momentum going heading into the New Year. We expect a whole-hearted effort from the hosts here but feel that they will be bowing out of the competition at the final whistle of this match. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 56.2%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 20.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.86%) and 0-2 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Tondela win it was 1-0 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tondela | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
20.82% ( 0.77) | 22.98% ( 0.61) | 56.2% ( -1.37) |
| Both teams to score 53.05% ( -0.76) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.42% ( -1.6) | 46.58% ( 1.61) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.15% ( -1.52) | 68.85% ( 1.53) |
| Tondela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.45% ( -0.13) | 36.55% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 26.66% ( -0.14) | 73.34% ( 0.14) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.62% ( -1.02) | 16.38% ( 1.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 53.98% ( -1.88) | 46.02% ( 1.89) |
| Score Analysis |
Tondela 20.82%
Sporting Lisbon 56.2%
Draw 22.98%
| Tondela | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 6.03% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 5.49% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 1.84% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.75% Total : 20.82% | 1-1 @ 10.9% ( 0.32) 0-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.4)2-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.98% | 0-1 @ 10.83% ( 0.36) 1-2 @ 9.86% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 9.8% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 5.95% ( -0.25)0-3 @ 5.91% ( -0.22)2-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.14)1-4 @ 2.69% ( -0.21)0-4 @ 2.67% ( -0.2)2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.11)1-5 @ 0.97% ( -0.11)0-5 @ 0.97% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.21% Total : 56.2% |
How you voted: Tondela vs Sporting Lisbon
Tondela
9.1%Draw
18.2%Sporting Lisbon
72.7%11
Head to Head
Form Guide
