Europa League

Europa League | Group Stage

Nov 30, 2023 at 5.45pm UK

Gewiss Stadium

Atalanta
1 - 1
Sporting Lisbon

Scamacca (23')
Lookman (38'), Scalvini (42'), Kolasinac (43'), de Roon (62')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Edwards (56')
Inacio (11'), Reis (90+4'), Morita (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Atalanta BC and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atalanta BC

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Atalanta 1-2 Napoli
Saturday, November 25 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 8-0 Dumiense
Sunday, November 26 at 6pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atalanta BC 2-2 Sporting Lisbon

A point will be enough for Sporting to qualify and for Atalanta to win the group, so a stalemate is likely for two sides who have little to separate themselves. While Sporting will still hold slim hopes of leapfrogging Atalanta at the top of the group, losing at home to La Dea on matchday two suggests that it will be a difficult ask to beat them to turn the head-to-head in their favour here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 36.03% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.82%) and 0-2 (5.96%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 2-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
36.03% ( 0.23)	24.42% ( -0.01)	39.55% ( -0.21)

Both teams to score 59.79% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.01% (

0.09)

42.99% (

-0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.61% (

0.09)

65.39% (

-0.09)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.43% (

0.16)

23.57% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.37% (

0.24)

57.63% (

-0.24)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.23% (

-0.07)

21.76% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.04% (

-0.1)

54.95% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 36.03%

Sporting Lisbon 39.55%

Draw 24.41%

Atalanta BC	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
2-1 @ 8.17% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 7.41% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.94% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 2.58% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.42% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.14% Total : 36.03%	1-1 @ 11.3% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.13% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.41%	1-2 @ 8.62% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 7.82% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 5.96% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 4.38% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.17% 0-3 @ 3.03% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.53% Total : 39.55%