Major League Soccer

May 1, 2022 at 6pm UK

Yankee Stadium

NY City
3 - 0
Earthquakes

Parks (74'), Pereira (78'), Gloster (88')
Callens (77'), Castellanos (80'), Rodriguez (82')

FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between New York City FC and San Jose Earthquakes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: New York City FC 3-2 San Jose Earthquakes

A week ago, these two teams showed a ton of potency in the attacking third, along with plenty of vulnerabilities at the back. They each have some lethal strikers who rarely miss in front of goal, but we are giving the edge to New York, who have a little more balance and structure to their lineup, whereas the Quakes are still searching for the right formula to keep winning consistently. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 65.77%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 16.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.4%) and 3-1 (7.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.86%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 1-2 (4.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.

Result
New York City FC	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
65.77%	18.05%	16.18%

Both teams to score 61.7%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.84%

31.16%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.42%

52.58%

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.1%

8.89%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

69.58%

30.42%

San Jose Earthquakes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.73%

32.27%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.23%

68.77%

Score Analysis

New York City FC 65.77%

San Jose Earthquakes 16.18%

Draw 18.05%

New York City FC	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
2-1 @ 9.51% 2-0 @ 8.4% 3-1 @ 7.67% 1-0 @ 6.95% 3-0 @ 6.78% 4-1 @ 4.64% 3-2 @ 4.34% 4-0 @ 4.1% 4-2 @ 2.62% 5-1 @ 2.25% 5-0 @ 1.99% 5-2 @ 1.27% 4-3 @ 0.99% 6-1 @ 0.91% Other @ 3.37% Total : 65.77%	1-1 @ 7.86% 2-2 @ 5.38% 0-0 @ 2.87% 3-3 @ 1.64% Other @ 0.31% Total : 18.05%	1-2 @ 4.44% 0-1 @ 3.25% 2-3 @ 2.03% 0-2 @ 1.84% 1-3 @ 1.68% Other @ 2.95% Total : 16.18%