After a pair of wild finishes a week ago, both New York City FC and the San Jose Earthquakes head into this weekend's match at Yankee Stadium unbeaten in their previous two Major League Soccer encounters.
The Pigeons nearly squandered a three-goal lead last Sunday, edging Toronto 5-4, while The Goonies have yet to lose under interim manager Alex Covelo, defeating the Seattle Sounders 4-3.
Match preview
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For those who enjoy end to end action, Citi Field in Queens, New York, was the place to be last weekend, as TFC and the Pigeons put on quite a show.
The reigning MLS Cup champions erased a two-goal deficit and then survived a late flurry from the visitors, conceding twice in the final five minutes for their third domestic win.
It might not have been as convincing as their previous performance in which they trounced Real Salt Lake 6-0, but one thing that has been abundantly clear with this squad in recent weeks is the quality that they possess in the final third, with 11 of their 16 goals coming in their previous two encounters.
Since that 1-1 draw against the Sounders, which led to their elimination from the CONCACAF Champions League, this team have been relentless, firing a combined 31 shots on target in their last three matches played in all competitions.
Their comeback victory last weekend was the first time in club history that they went on to win an MLS match in which they trailed by two goals, and it was also the first time all season that the Boys in Blue earned a result after conceding first.
Youth has served this team well, especially in their previous encounter when only three players in the starting 11 were over the age of 25, which means that the present and future of this club appear to be promising.
Ronny Deila has always given his fullbacks the green light to push forward, while the centre-backs play out from deep in their end, and all of their forward motion has enabled them to create plenty of opportunities in recent matches.
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Matias Almeyda may no longer be at the helm in San Jose, but in their first domestic affair without him, the team looked just as chaotic and unpredictable as we saw when their former Argentine coach was in charge.
In 2022, the Quakes have earned their points the hard way, drawing two of their three matches this year when trailing by a pair of goals and winning their first game of the regular season last Saturday despite falling behind 2-0 and 3-1.
San Jose are the fourth highest-scoring team in the league after eight games, having shown multiple times that they can dig themselves out of a hole quickly, tallying twice in fewer than 15 minutes in three separate encounters this year.
With Almeyda out of the picture, we have seen their temporary boss go away from a man-marking approach, which seemed to hamper these players for years.
Moving away from that style has given this side more freedom to push forward and create opportunities, outscoring their opponents 9-3 in their two matches played under Covelo.
At times this season, we have seen the Goonies play with a reckless abandon that is incredibly captivating, though frustrating for their supporters as well, conceding the most goals in MLS (20).
As they attempt to turn this campaign around, earning a win away from home would be a nice positive step forward, having lost all three of their road encounters so far this year, while conceding multiple goals in seven of their last eight regular-season affairs as the visiting team.
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Team News
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Valentin Castellanos kickstarted the comeback for the MLS Cup champs against Toronto, scoring for the fifth time in his last two games, with the other goals coming courtesy of Thiago Andrade, Santiago Rodriguez, Keaton Parks and Gabriel Pereira.
Talles Magno assisted on what wound up being the winning goal from Pereira, as New York were able to survive a wave of TFC pressure, while a pair of yellow cards from Alfredo Morales will see him suspended for this upcoming fixture.
Anton Tinnerholm has not recovered from his Achilles tendon problem, while Maxime Chanot and Maxi Moralez are unlikely to see the field in this game because of upper-body injuries.
Cristian Espinoza became the sixth Argentine player to score an MLS hat-trick, notching the game-winner from the penalty spot in injury time to help San Jose defeat Seattle.
Jackson Yueill tallied his first of the 2022 season last week, while Jamiro Monteiro collected his first two assists of the year, moving him into second on the team, three back of Jan Gregus.
Gilbert Fuentes remains out for personal reasons, Judson has a left knee issue and Chofis continues to nurse a left upper thigh injury.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Gray, Gloster, Callens, Amundsen; Parks, Acevedo; Andrade, Rodriguez, Magno; Castellanos
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Marie, Nathan, Calvo, Beason; Remedi, Gregus; Espinoza, Yueill, Monteiro; Ebobisse
We say: New York City FC 3-2 San Jose Earthquakes
A week ago, these two teams showed a ton of potency in the attacking third, along with plenty of vulnerabilities at the back.
They each have some lethal strikers who rarely miss in front of goal, but we are giving the edge to New York, who have a little more balance and structure to their lineup, whereas the Quakes are still searching for the right formula to keep winning consistently.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 65.77%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 16.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.4%) and 3-1 (7.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.86%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 1-2 (4.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
