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Africa Cup Of Nations section header

Africa Cup of Nations
Algeria national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Nov 17, 2024 at 4pm UK
Stade Mustapha Tchaker
Liberia national football team

Algeria
5 - 1
Liberia

Mandi (20'), Mahrez (29'), Bounedjah (64'), Gouiri (74'), El Amine Amoura (90+5')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Dweh (6')
Koulibaly (21'), Sesay (45'), Roosevelt Teah (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Algeria and Liberia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Algeria

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Eq Guinea 0-0 Algeria
Thursday, November 14 at 1pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Liberia

Last Game: Liberia 1-0 Togo
Wednesday, November 13 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Algeria 2-0 Liberia

 While this weekend's game is nothing but a dead rubber for both Algeria and Liberia, both sides will go out to secure bragging rights and close out the campaign on a high. Given the gulf in quality and experience between the two teams, we predict that the Desert Warriors will extend their dominance over Liberia in front of their home fans. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Algeria win with a probability of 77.07%. A draw had a probability of 15% and a win for Liberia had a probability of 7.91%.

The most likely scoreline for an Algeria win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.99%) and 1-0 (10.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.14%), while for a Liberia win it was 0-1 (2.9%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Algeria would win this match.

Result
AlgeriaDrawLiberia
77.07% (0.742 0.74) 15.02% (-0.559 -0.56) 7.91% (-0.1841 -0.18)
Both teams to score 44.07% (1.14 1.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.35% (2.005 2.01)39.65% (-2.007 -2.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38% (2.055 2.06)62% (-2.057 -2.06)
Algeria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.49% (0.655 0.66)8.5% (-0.657 -0.66)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70.53% (1.594 1.59)29.47% (-1.595 -1.6)
Liberia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
48.17% (0.909 0.91)51.83% (-0.91099999999999 -0.91)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
14.11% (0.59 0.59)85.89% (-0.59100000000001 -0.59)
Score Analysis
    Algeria 77.05%
    Liberia 7.91%
    Draw 15.02%
AlgeriaDrawLiberia
2-0 @ 13.38% (-0.42 -0.42)
3-0 @ 10.99%
1-0 @ 10.86% (-0.68 -0.68)
2-1 @ 8.8% (-0.032999999999999 -0.03)
3-1 @ 7.23% (0.193 0.19)
4-0 @ 6.78% (0.206 0.21)
4-1 @ 4.45% (0.249 0.25)
5-0 @ 3.34% (0.2 0.2)
3-2 @ 2.38% (0.124 0.12)
5-1 @ 2.2% (0.186 0.19)
4-2 @ 1.46% (0.119 0.12)
6-0 @ 1.37% (0.121 0.12)
6-1 @ 0.9% (0.102 0.1)
Other @ 2.92%
Total : 77.05%
1-1 @ 7.14% (-0.25 -0.25)
0-0 @ 4.41% (-0.424 -0.42)
2-2 @ 2.89% (0.067 0.07)
Other @ 0.58%
Total : 15.02%
0-1 @ 2.9% (-0.195 -0.2)
1-2 @ 2.35% (-0.017 -0.02)
0-2 @ 0.95% (-0.037 -0.04)
Other @ 1.72%
Total : 7.91%

How you voted: Algeria vs Liberia

Algeria
70.4%
Draw
25.9%
Liberia
3.7%
27
Head to Head
Sep 10, 2024 5pm
Group Stage
Liberia
0-3
Algeria

W (73')
Gouiri (17'), Zorgane (25'), Bounedjah (80')
Zerrouki (73'), Khacef (82')
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