We said: Minnesota United 0-1 New York City FC
New York have not played enough away games to get a true sense of how they are doing on their travels this year, but while in good form they should make the most of Sunday's opportunity to improve their record on the road.
Despite these two teams usually being involved in high-scoring matches than a 1-0 result, Sunday could be a tight game given the visitors unfamiliarity away from home, and Minnesota's inconsistencies.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 42.94%. A win for Minnesota United had a probability of 31.89% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.99%) and 0-2 (7.09%). The likeliest Minnesota United win was 1-0 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for New York City FC in this match.