Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 30

Apr 9, 2023 at 2pm UK

Stade de la Mosson

Montpellier
1 - 2
Toulouse

Wahi (88')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Dallinga (31'), Chaibi (85')
Genreau (58'), van den Boomen (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Montpellier HSC and Toulouse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Montpellier HSC

All competitions

Last Game: Marseille 1-1 Montpellier
Friday, March 31 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Toulouse

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Annecy 1-2 Toulouse
Thursday, April 6 at 7.45pm in Coupe de France

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Montpellier HSC 2-0 Toulouse

In an often high-scoring fixture, there have been 18 goals scored in the last five meetings between the sides, including a 4-2 win for Toulouse in the reverse earlier this season. However, Montpellier's resurgence has been phenomenal, and they may well continue their hot streak with another win over a side who could be focusing more on the cup final to come in a few weeks' time. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 42.9%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 33.04% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.93%) and 0-2 (6.43%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 2-1 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Toulouse in this match.

Result
Montpellier HSC	Draw	Toulouse
33.04% ( 0.54)	24.06% ( -0.04)	42.9% ( -0.5)

Both teams to score 60.37% (

0.37)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.06% (

0.39)

41.93% (

-0.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.66% (

0.39)

64.34% (

-0.39)

Montpellier HSC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.24% (

0.51)

24.76% (

-0.51)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.68% (

0.71)

59.32% (

-0.71)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.23% (

-0.05)

19.76% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.19% (

-0.09)

51.81% (

0.09)

Score Analysis

Montpellier HSC 33.04%

Toulouse 42.9%

Draw 24.05%

Montpellier HSC	Draw	Toulouse
2-1 @ 7.73% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 6.83% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 4.77% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 3.6% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 2.92% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 2.22% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.7% Total : 33.04%	1-1 @ 11.07% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.27% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 4.89% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.05%	1-2 @ 8.98% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 7.93% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 6.43% ( -0.14) 1-3 @ 4.85% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 3.48% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 3.39% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.97% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.41% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.37% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.1% Total : 42.9%