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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 43.14%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (8.12%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-0 (9.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Newport County in this match.
Result | ||
Hartlepool United | Draw | Newport County |
29.62% ( -0.2) | 27.24% ( 0.48) | 43.14% ( -0.27) |
Both teams to score 48.52% ( -1.51) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.37% ( -1.89) | 56.63% ( 1.89) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.4% ( -1.54) | 77.6% ( 1.55) |
Hartlepool United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.57% ( -1.15) | 34.42% ( 1.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.86% ( -1.25) | 71.13% ( 1.25) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.99% ( -0.99) | 26.01% ( 0.99) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.97% ( -1.36) | 61.03% ( 1.36) |
Score Analysis |
Hartlepool United | Draw | Newport County |
1-0 @ 9.55% ( 0.39) 2-1 @ 6.86% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 5.09% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 2.44% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 1.81% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.24% Total : 29.62% | 1-1 @ 12.85% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 8.95% ( 0.63) 2-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.22) Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.23% | 0-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.52) 1-2 @ 8.66% ( -0.14) 0-2 @ 8.12% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 3.89% ( -0.18) 0-3 @ 3.65% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.16) 1-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.1) 0-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.17% Total : 43.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Walsall | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
4 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
21 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
> League Two Full Table |