Eredivisie | Gameweek 20

Feb 3, 2024 at 8pm UK

Goffertstadion

Nijmegen
3 - 1
Heracles

Ogawa (51' pen., 59'), Chery (66')
Meijer (0'), Sow (48')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Hornkamp (3')
Sonnenberg (50')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Eredivisie clash between NEC and Heracles, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

NEC

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Go Ahead Eagles 2-2 Nijmegen
Sunday, January 28 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Heracles

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Heracles 2-4 Ajax
Saturday, January 27 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: NEC 3-1 Heracles

Heracles have conceded the most goals of any Eredivisie team this season, and we can see them enduring another defensive collapse here en route to a disappointing defeat in the end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 50.87%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 27.29% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.75%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (6.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for NEC in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for NEC.

Result
NEC	Draw	Heracles
50.87% ( 1.33)	21.83% ( -0.37)	27.29% ( -0.97)

Both teams to score 64.9% (

0.51)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.54% (

1.02)

34.46% (

-1.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.61% (

1.14)

56.38% (

-1.14)

NEC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.1% (

0.8)

13.89% (

-0.81)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.68% (

1.56)

41.32% (

-1.57)

Heracles Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.37% (

-0.11)

24.62% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.86% (

-0.16)

59.13% (

0.15)

Score Analysis

NEC 50.87%

Heracles 27.29%

Draw 21.83%

NEC	Draw	Heracles
2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.75% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 6.14% ( 0.19) 3-0 @ 4.38% ( 0.15) 3-2 @ 4.31% ( 0.12) 4-1 @ 3.03% ( 0.18) 4-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.13) 4-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.12) 5-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.1) 4-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.78% Total : 50.87%	1-1 @ 9.46% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 6.54% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.42% ( -0.18) 3-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.39% Total : 21.83%	1-2 @ 6.63% ( -0.2) 0-1 @ 4.8% ( -0.27) 0-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.2) 1-3 @ 3.1% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 3.06% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.62% Total : 27.29%