Eredivisie | Gameweek 19

Jan 27, 2024 at 8pm UK

Polman Stadion

Heracles
2 - 4
Ajax

Hornkamp (12'), Engels (60')
De Keersmaecker (15'), Cestic (90')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Brobbey (16', 57'), Berghuis (55'), Hlynsson (84')
Taylor (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Eredivisie clash between Heracles and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Heracles

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Heracles 1-1 Volendam
Saturday, January 20 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Ajax 4-1 RKC Waalwijk
Sunday, January 21 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Heracles 0-3 Ajax

Ajax have rekindled their form and seem unstoppable at the moment. They are the clear favourites in this tie and look likely to extend their unbeaten run. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 54.74%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 25.55% and a draw had a probability of 19.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.71%) and 0-2 (5.53%). The likeliest Heracles win was 2-1 (5.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Heracles	Draw	Ajax
25.55% ( 0.73)	19.71% ( 0.18)	54.74% ( -0.91)

Both teams to score 71.33% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

74.51% (

-0.15)

25.49% (

0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

54.45% (

-0.2)

45.56% (

0.2)

Heracles Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.07% (

0.38)

20.94% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.33% (

0.58)

53.67% (

-0.58)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.22% (

-0.26)

9.78% (

0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.48% (

-0.62)

32.52% (

0.63)

Score Analysis

Heracles 25.55%

Ajax 54.74%

Draw 19.71%

Heracles	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 3.53% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 3.2% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 3.03% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.08) 4-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 1.31% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 1.19% ( 0.05) 4-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.53% Total : 25.55%	1-1 @ 7.44% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.77% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 2.73% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.72% Total : 19.71%	1-2 @ 8.65% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 6.71% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 5.24% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.76% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 4.29% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 3.9% ( -0.1) 2-4 @ 3.05% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 2.49% ( -0.1) 1-5 @ 1.81% ( -0.07) 3-4 @ 1.59% ( -0) 2-5 @ 1.42% ( -0.04) 0-5 @ 1.16% ( -0.06) Other @ 4.15% Total : 54.74%