Eredivisie | Gameweek 14

Dec 3, 2023 at 1.30pm UK

Sportpark De Weeren

Nijmegen
1 - 2
Ajax

Tavsan (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Hlynsson (57'), Borges (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between NEC and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

NEC

All competitions

Last Game: Nijmegen 1-1 Go Ahead Eagles
Sunday, November 26 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Marseille 4-3 Ajax
Thursday, November 30 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Given the consistency that NEC have shown in avoiding defeat of late, this may not be one-way traffic. Nevertheless, Ajax have started to score a hatful of goals and we can only see the visitors ultimately prevailing by a wide margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 45.49%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 33.74% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.63%) and 3-2 (5.07%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
NEC	Draw	Ajax
45.49% ( 3.84)	20.77% ( -0.02)	33.74% ( -3.83)

Both teams to score 73.28% (

-0.99)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

74.73% (

-0.89)

25.27% (

0.89)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

54.73% (

-1.17)

45.27% (

1.17)

NEC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.78% (

0.87)

12.21% (

-0.87)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.1% (

1.8)

37.9% (

-1.8)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.47% (

-1.98)

16.52% (

1.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.73% (

-3.7)

46.27% (

3.69)

Score Analysis

NEC 45.49%

Ajax 33.74%

Draw 20.77%

NEC	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 8.03% ( 0.45) 3-1 @ 5.63% ( 0.49) 3-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 4.46% ( 0.53) 1-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.37) 3-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.46) 4-1 @ 2.96% ( 0.35) 4-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.14) 4-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.29) 4-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.24% ( 0.18) 5-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.1) Other @ 3.7% Total : 45.49%	1-1 @ 7.64% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 7.23% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.12) Other @ 0.84% Total : 20.77%	1-2 @ 6.88% ( -0.32) 2-3 @ 4.34% ( -0.36) 1-3 @ 4.13% ( -0.5) 0-1 @ 3.63% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.27) 0-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.31) 2-4 @ 1.95% ( -0.31) 1-4 @ 1.86% ( -0.37) 3-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.17) Other @ 4.35% Total : 33.74%