Eredivisie | Gameweek 24

Mar 5, 2023 at 3.45pm UK

Amsterdam Arena

Ajax
1 - 0
Nijmegen

Kudus (52')
Kudus (13')

FT(HT: 0-0)

van Rooij (45+1'), Baldursson (72'), Tannane (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Ajax and NEC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: De Graafschap 0-3 Ajax
Thursday, March 2 at 8pm in KNVB Beker

Goals
for

Top scorers

NEC

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Nijmegen 3-0 Volendam
Saturday, February 25 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Having posted two 3-0 wins in succession, confidence will be oozing out of NEC ahead of the toughest fixture on their schedule. However, there is more chance of the visitors losing by that scoreline this week as Ajax continue to impress under Heitinga. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 83.12%. A draw had a probability of 10.8% and a win for NEC had a probability of 6.05%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.8%) and 4-0 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.89%), while for a NEC win it was 1-2 (1.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Ajax	Draw	NEC
83.12% ( -1.64)	10.83% ( 0.88)	6.05% ( 0.77)

Both teams to score 51.83% (

1.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

74.87% (

-1.15)

25.13% (

1.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

54.92% (

-1.51)

45.08% (

1.52)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

95.63% (

-0.44)

4.37% (

0.45)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

81.96% (

-1.41)

18.04% (

1.42)

NEC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.2% (

1.43)

45.8% (

-1.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.43% (

1.09)

81.57% (

-1.09)

Score Analysis

Ajax 83.11%

NEC 6.05%

Draw 10.83%

Ajax	Draw	NEC
3-0 @ 10.23% ( -0.25) 2-0 @ 9.8% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 8.01% ( -0.48) 3-1 @ 7.99% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 7.66% ( 0.37) 1-0 @ 6.26% ( 0.26) 4-1 @ 6.26% ( -0.11) 5-0 @ 5.02% ( -0.48) 5-1 @ 3.92% ( -0.21) 3-2 @ 3.12% ( 0.17) 6-0 @ 2.62% ( -0.35) 4-2 @ 2.44% ( 0.05) 6-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.18) 5-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.02) 7-0 @ 1.17% ( -0.2) 7-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.12) Other @ 4.13% Total : 83.11%	1-1 @ 4.89% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 2.99% ( 0.26) 0-0 @ 2% ( 0.15) Other @ 0.95% Total : 10.83%	1-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.22) 0-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.17) Other @ 2.58% Total : 6.05%