Eredivisie | Gameweek 1
Aug 12, 2023 at 7pm UK
Johan Cruijff Arena
Ajax4 - 1Heracles
We said: Ajax 2-0 Heracles
Heracles enter Saturday's clash in buoyant mood and will be hoping to take advantage of Ajax's poor end to pre-season by frustrating the host in Amsterdam on Saturday. Despite the departure of a few key players from last season, we believe that Steijn's side still have enough quality to claim maximum points and begin the new campaign on a positive note. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 62.27%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 19.05% and a draw had a probability of 18.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.45%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (4.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Heracles |
62.27% ( 0.02) | 18.69% ( 0.02) | 19.05% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 65.52% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.02% ( -0.17) | 28.98% ( 0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.05% ( -0.21) | 49.95% ( 0.21) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.92% ( -0.04) | 9.08% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 69.14% ( -0.11) | 30.85% ( 0.11) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.06% ( -0.15) | 27.94% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 36.43% ( -0.19) | 63.57% ( 0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
Ajax 62.27%
Heracles 19.05%
Draw 18.69%
| Ajax | Draw | Heracles |
| 2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.45% 2-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.04)1-0 @ 6.09% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 5.84% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 4.47% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.85% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 2.14% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.68% 5-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)Other @ 4.32% Total : 62.27% | 1-1 @ 7.76% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.94% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 2.54% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.44% Total : 18.69% | 1-2 @ 4.95% 0-1 @ 3.23% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.06% ( 0)Other @ 4.18% Total : 19.05% |
How you voted: Ajax vs Heracles
Ajax
85.0%Draw
10.0%Heracles
5.0%20
