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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 68.66%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 14.61%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.02%) and 3-1 (7.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.05%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-2 (4.02%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
68.66% ( -0.03) | 16.73% ( 0.04) | 14.61% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 62.99% ( -0.2) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
72.12% ( -0.24) | 27.88% ( 0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
51.4% ( -0.29) | 48.59% ( 0.29) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
92.56% ( -0.06) | 7.44% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
73.23% ( -0.17) | 26.76% ( 0.17) |
RKC Waalwijk Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.05% ( -0.17) | 31.95% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.6% ( -0.2) | 68.4% ( 0.19) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
2-1 @ 9.16% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 7.93% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.95% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.18% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 5.15% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 4.52% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 4.51% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 2.35% ( -0.01) 5-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.02) 6-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.01) 4-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.46% Total : 68.66% | 1-1 @ 7.05% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.36% Total : 16.73% | 1-2 @ 4.02% ( 0) 0-1 @ 2.71% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.81% Total : 14.61% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |