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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 66.82%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 15.65%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.19%) and 1-3 (7.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.51%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 2-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
RKC Waalwijk | Draw | Ajax |
15.65% ( 1.83) | 17.53% ( 1.52) | 66.82% ( -3.35) |
Both teams to score 62.5% ( -1.25) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
70.37% ( -3.55) | 29.62% ( 3.55) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
49.26% ( -4.43) | 50.73% ( 4.43) |
RKC Waalwijk Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.12% ( -0.2) | 31.87% ( 0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.68% ( -0.24) | 68.32% ( 0.23) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.74% ( -1.55) | 8.26% ( 1.55) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
71.14% ( -4.02) | 28.86% ( 4.02) |
Score Analysis |
RKC Waalwijk | Draw | Ajax |
2-1 @ 4.29% ( 0.5) 1-0 @ 3.01% ( 0.57) 3-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 1.72% ( 0.32) 3-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.18) Other @ 2.95% Total : 15.65% | 1-1 @ 7.51% ( 0.91) 2-2 @ 5.35% ( 0.23) 0-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.51) 3-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.34% Total : 17.53% | 1-2 @ 9.36% ( 0.44) 0-2 @ 8.19% ( 0.43) 1-3 @ 7.78% ( -0.25) 0-3 @ 6.8% ( -0.18) 0-1 @ 6.57% ( 0.82) 1-4 @ 4.85% ( -0.57) 2-3 @ 4.45% ( -0.17) 0-4 @ 4.24% ( -0.47) 2-4 @ 2.77% ( -0.35) 1-5 @ 2.42% ( -0.51) 0-5 @ 2.12% ( -0.43) 2-5 @ 1.38% ( -0.3) 3-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.14) 1-6 @ 1.01% ( -0.31) Other @ 3.83% Total : 66.82% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 16 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 56 | 13 | 43 | 42 |
2 | Ajax | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 36 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 35 |
5 | FC Twente | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 31 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 29 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 22 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 22 |
10 | Heerenveen | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 21 |
11 | Willem II | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 12 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 40 | -23 | 6 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 37 | -30 | 6 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |