Eredivisie | Gameweek 16

Dec 15, 2023 at 7pm UK

Sportpark De Weeren

Nijmegen
4 - 1
Sittard

Mattsson (33', 70'), Ogawa (45+2'), Hansen (75')
Proper (16'), Tavsan (42'), Schone (86')
Hoedemakers (49')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Sierhuis (69')
Guth (53'), Pinto (83')
Noslin (24')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Eredivisie clash between NEC and Fortuna Sittard, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

NEC

All competitions

Last Game: PEC Zwolle 1-3 Nijmegen
Saturday, December 9 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Fortuna Sittard

All competitions

Last Game: Sittard 1-0 RKC Waalwijk
Sunday, December 10 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: NEC 2-1 Fortuna Sittard

NEC were impressive in their away wins at Alkmaar and Zwolle over the past week, meaning the hosts on Friday will be confident of recording another maximum. Sittard have been woeful on the road, and despite back-to-back victories at the start of the month, we cannot imagine the visitors earning anything from their trip to Goffertstadion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 52.01%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 25.43% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.

Result
NEC	Draw	Fortuna Sittard
52.01% ( 0.26)	22.55% ( -0.09)	25.43% ( -0.17)

Both teams to score 60.39% (

0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.4% (

0.29)

39.59% (

-0.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.05% (

0.3)

61.94% (

-0.3)

NEC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.65% (

0.19)

15.35% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.89% (

0.36)

44.11% (

-0.36)

Fortuna Sittard Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.34% (

0.02)

28.66% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.53% (

0.03)

64.47% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

NEC 52.01%

Fortuna Sittard 25.43%

Draw 22.55%

NEC	Draw	Fortuna Sittard
2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.24% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 7.72% 3-1 @ 6.03% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.83% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.77% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.83% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 2.26% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.77% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.85% Total : 52.01%	1-1 @ 10.3% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.03% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.4% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.55%	1-2 @ 6.44% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.5% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.51% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.44% Total : 25.43%