Eredivisie | Gameweek 4

Sep 2, 2023 at 8pm UK

Erve Asito

Heracles
3 - 1
Excelsior

Limbombe (54'), Hoogma (60'), Sankoh (85')
Willems (82')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Agrafiotis (19')
Lamprou (39'), Zagre (49'), Smeulers (76')
Lamprou (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Eredivisie clash between Heracles and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Heracles

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Heracles 2-1 Nijmegen
Friday, August 18 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

SBV Excelsior

All competitions

Last Game: Excelsior 2-2 Sittard
Saturday, August 26 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

We said: Heracles 1-2 SBV Excelsior

Excelsior will be buoyed by their unbeaten start to the new season, and we think that they will continue their impressive run against a Heracles side that they have beaten in three consecutive head-to-head meetings. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 59.46%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 18.98%.

The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.14%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 0-1 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.

Result
Heracles	Draw	SBV Excelsior
59.46% ( 0.89)	21.55% ( -0.37)	18.98% ( -0.53)

Both teams to score 54.72% (

0.31)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.11% (

0.86)

42.89% (

-0.85)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.7% (

0.84)

65.29% (

-0.84)

Heracles Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.94% (

0.56)

14.06% (

-0.56)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.36% (

1.09)

41.63% (

-1.09)

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.66% (

-0.06)

36.33% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.88% (

-0.06)

73.12% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Heracles 59.46%

SBV Excelsior 18.98%

Draw 21.55%

Heracles	Draw	SBV Excelsior
1-0 @ 10.02% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 9.95% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.83% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 6.43% ( 0.15) 3-2 @ 3.3% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 3.19% ( 0.13) 4-0 @ 3.15% ( 0.13) 4-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.06) 5-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.08) 5-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.97% Total : 59.46%	1-1 @ 10.14% ( -0.2) 0-0 @ 5.11% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.55%	0-1 @ 5.17% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 2.62% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.7% ( -0) Other @ 2.63% Total : 18.98%