Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs | Second Round | 1st Leg

May 18, 2022 at 5.45pm UK

SBV Excelsior
3 - 0
Heracles

(SBV Excelsior win 6-1 on aggregate)

Azarkan (21'), Dallinga (74'), Driouech (85')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Schoofs (29')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Eredivisie playoff clash between SBV Excelsior and Heracles, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

SBV Excelsior

Last Six:

Last Game: ADO Den Haag 4-4 SBV Excelsior (7-8 pen.)
Sunday, May 29 at 5pm in Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
4	ADO Den Haag	37	26	67
5	SBV Excelsior	37	25	65
6	Roda JC	37	26	63

Heracles

Last Six:

Last Game: Heracles 1-3 SBV Excelsior
Saturday, May 21 at 7pm in Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
13	RKC Waalwijk	33	-13	35
14	Heracles	33	-14	34
15	Sparta Rotterdam	33	-20	32

We said: SBV Excelsior 1-2 Heracles

While the home side will no doubt be full of confidence, we cannot ignore the fact that they have not exactly found it easy posting wins of late. With that in mind, Heracles' superior quality should prove key, and they would be more than satisfied if they establish a narrow lead before the second leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 52.1%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 24.04% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Heracles win was 0-1 (6.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.

Result
SBV Excelsior	Draw	Heracles
52.1% ( -0.84)	23.86% ( 0.16)	24.04% ( 0.67)

Both teams to score 54.42% (

0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.2% (

-0.04)

46.8% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.94% (

-0.04)

69.06% (

0.04)

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.05% (

-0.33)

17.95% (

0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.22% (

-0.57)

48.78% (

0.57)

Heracles Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.33% (

0.57)

33.67% (

-0.56)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.67% (

0.61)

70.33% (

-0.61)

Score Analysis

SBV Excelsior 52.1%

Heracles 24.04%

Draw 23.85%

SBV Excelsior	Draw	Heracles
1-0 @ 10.38% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 5.56% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 5.11% ( -0.16) 3-2 @ 3.02% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 2.19% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.53% Total : 52.1%	1-1 @ 11.29% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.85%	0-1 @ 6.58% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 6.15% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.92% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.29% Total : 24.04%