The teams are in good form coming into this one and we are anticipating an open contest with significant goalmouth action at both ends. That said, we are tipping the home side to just about get the better of their visitors and take a narrow advantage into the second leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 51.13%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Melgar had a probability of 22.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.3%), while for a Melgar win it was 0-1 (8.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Independiente del Valle would win this match.

Result
Independiente del Valle	Draw	Melgar
51.13% ( -0.26)	26.38% ( 0.03)	22.49% ( 0.23)

Both teams to score 45.3% (

0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.05% (

0.07)

57.94% (

-0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.35% (

0.06)

78.65% (

-0.06)

Independiente del Valle Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.22% (

-0.09)

22.78% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.52% (

-0.13)

56.48% (

0.12)

Melgar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.67% (

0.27)

41.33% (

-0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.15% (

0.24)

77.85% (

-0.24)

Score Analysis

Independiente del Valle 51.12%

Melgar 22.49%

Draw 26.37%

Independiente del Valle	Draw	Melgar
1-0 @ 13.92% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 10.3% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.1% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5.08% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.88% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.66% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.71% Total : 51.12%	1-1 @ 12.3% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.42% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.02% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.63% Total : 26.37%	0-1 @ 8.32% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 3.68% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.2% Total : 22.49%