Experience seemed to be a significant advantage for the Ecuadorians in the opening leg, and while Melgar have been potent at times on home soil, we are backing the visitors to advance as they have rarely played poor defensively of late. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 55.63%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 21.17%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.84%) and 2-0 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Independiente del Valle win it was 0-1 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Independiente del Valle would win this match.

Result
Melgar	Draw	Independiente del Valle
55.63% ( 0.02)	23.2% ( -0.01)	21.17% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 52.86% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.91% (

0.02)

47.09% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.67% (

0.02)

69.33% (

-0.02)

Melgar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.24% (

0.02)

16.77% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.3% (

0.03)

46.71% (

-0.03)

Independiente del Valle Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.51% (

-0)

36.49% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.73% (

-0)

73.28% (

Score Analysis

Melgar 55.62%

Independiente del Valle 21.17%

Draw 23.2%

Melgar	Draw	Independiente del Valle
1-0 @ 10.92% 2-1 @ 9.84% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.76% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.85% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.81% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.95% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.61% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.59% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0) 5-1 @ 0.93% ( 0) 5-0 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 2.12% Total : 55.62%	1-1 @ 11.01% 0-0 @ 6.12% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.96% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.2%	0-1 @ 6.17% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.55% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.11% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.87% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.67% 0-3 @ 1.05% ( -0) Other @ 1.77% Total : 21.17%