After only narrowly missing out on the Copa Libertadores knockout stage, Independiente del Valle have a point to prove and will aim to go ahead on home turf, and we back them to take a narrow lead into the away leg in what should be a tight contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 51.32%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Lanus had a probability of 21.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (8.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.38%), while for a Lanus win it was 0-1 (8.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Independiente del Valle in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Independiente del Valle.

Result
Independiente del Valle	Draw	Lanus
51.32% ( -0.03)	27.65% ( -0.03)	21.03% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 40.51% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.72% (

0.13)

63.28% (

-0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.33% (

0.09)

82.67% (

-0.09)

Independiente del Valle Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.97% (

0.04)

25.03% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.3% (

0.06)

59.7% (

-0.06)

Lanus Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.03% (

0.14)

45.97% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.3% (

0.11)

81.7% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Independiente del Valle 51.31%

Lanus 21.03%

Draw 27.64%

Independiente del Valle	Draw	Lanus
1-0 @ 15.93% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 11.03% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.58% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.1% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.96% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.76% 3-2 @ 1.54% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.37% ( 0) Other @ 2.04% Total : 51.31%	1-1 @ 12.38% 0-0 @ 11.5% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.43% Total : 27.64%	0-1 @ 8.94% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.81% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 3.48% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.55% Total : 21.03%