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Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
May 26, 2022 at 11.15pm UK
Estadio Melgar
Cuiaba

Melgar
3 - 1
Cuiaba

Pierre Archimbaud Arriaran (38'), Bordacahar (85', 89')
Cuesta (48'), Tandazo (58')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Henrique Alves Silva (62')
Henrique Pereira (33'), Marquinhos (40')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Melgar and Cuiaba, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melgar

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Melgar 3-1 Cuiaba
Thursday, May 26 at 11.15pm in Copa Sudamericana
Next Game: Deportivo Cali vs. Melgar
Thursday, June 30 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Cuiaba

Last Six:
Last Game: Cuiaba 1-0 Corinthians
Wednesday, June 8 at 1.30am in Brasileiro
Next Game: Cuiaba vs. Bragantino
Saturday, June 11 at 11pm in Brasileiro

We said: Melgar 1-0 Cuiaba

 It seems unlikely that Racing Club will lose to River Plate in the other fixture in this group on Thursday, but Melgar will make sure that they do their part so they can capitalise on any potential slip-up from the leaders. This encounter is likely to be a close affair, but Melgar are in better form overall which should give them the edge in this one, especially being on home soil also. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 52.45%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 21.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.66%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (8.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.

Result
MelgarDrawCuiaba
52.45% (0.030999999999999 0.03) 26.11% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03) 21.44% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Both teams to score 44.79% (0.093000000000004 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.04% (0.119 0.12)57.96% (-0.119 -0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.34% (0.093 0.09)78.66% (-0.094999999999999 -0.09)
Melgar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.79% (0.063999999999993 0.06)22.21% (-0.065999999999999 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.37% (0.095999999999997 0.1)55.63% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1)
Cuiaba Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.58% (0.071000000000005 0.07)42.42% (-0.071999999999996 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.2% (0.061 0.06)78.8% (-0.061999999999998 -0.06)
Score Analysis
    Melgar 52.44%
    Cuiaba 21.44%
    Draw 26.1%
MelgarDrawCuiaba
1-0 @ 14.17% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-0 @ 10.66% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.15% (0.012 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.35% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.59% (0.015 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.01% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.97% (0.01 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.73% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 52.44%
1-1 @ 12.15% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 9.42% (-0.043000000000001 -0.04)
2-2 @ 3.92% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 26.1%
0-1 @ 8.08% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
1-2 @ 5.21% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.47% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
1-3 @ 1.49% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 1.12% (0.006 0.01)
0-3 @ 0.99% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.08%
Total : 21.44%

How you voted: Melgar vs Cuiaba

Melgar
66.7%
Draw
8.3%
Cuiaba
25.0%
12
Head to Head
Apr 7, 2022 11.15pm
Cuiaba
2-0
Melgar
Elton (78', 90+5')
Marcao (12'), Pepe (28'), Marllon (84')

Bordacahar (21'), Orzan (38'), Deneumostier (45+1'), Ramos (77')
rhs 2.0
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