Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 16, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre
Rosario4 - 1Caracas
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Argentinos Jrs 3-2 Rosario
Saturday, May 11 at 1.15am in Argentine Primera Division
Saturday, May 11 at 1.15am in Argentine Primera Division
Goals
for
for
12
Last Game: Caracas 0-1 Penarol
Tuesday, May 7 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Tuesday, May 7 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
We said: Rosario Central 2-0 Caracas
This is the second time in the last three seasons that Caracas have featured in the group stage of this tournament, yet they still look indecisive and intimidated by some of the bigger clubs from Brazil and Argentina. While Rosario have not been all that clinical so far in this competition, they can expect to have plenty of chances against a side that have shown to be relatively passive so far. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rosario Central win with a probability of 54.7%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Caracas had a probability of 20.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rosario Central win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a Caracas win it was 0-1 (7.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rosario Central would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rosario Central | Draw | Caracas |
54.7% ( 0.14) | 24.95% ( 0.02) | 20.35% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 46.49% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.04% ( -0.26) | 54.95% ( 0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.76% ( -0.22) | 76.23% ( 0.21) |
| Rosario Central Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.93% ( -0.05) | 20.06% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 47.71% ( -0.07) | 52.29% ( 0.07) |
| Caracas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.16% ( -0.33) | 41.84% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 21.7% ( -0.29) | 78.29% ( 0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
Rosario Central 54.69%
Caracas 20.35%
Draw 24.94%
| Rosario Central | Draw | Caracas |
| 1-0 @ 13.48% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 10.82% ( 0.07)2-1 @ 9.44% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.05% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.54% Total : 54.69% | 1-1 @ 11.74% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.39% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.7% Total : 24.94% | 0-1 @ 7.31% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.19% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.12% Total : 20.35% |
How you voted: Rosario vs Caracas
Rosario Central
100%Draw
0.0%Caracas
0.0%8
Head to Head
Apr 23, 2024 11pm
Group Stage
Caracas
1-1
Rosario
Pernia (25')
Rivas (17'), Perez (34'), Jimenez (79')
Rivas (17'), Perez (34'), Jimenez (79')
Modica (67')
Martinez (79'), Modica (90+3')
Martinez (79'), Modica (90+3')
Form Guide
