Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rosario Central win with a probability of 42.44%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 31.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rosario Central win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Penarol win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rosario Central in this match.

Result
Rosario Central	Draw	Penarol
42.44% ( -0.06)	26.17% ( 0.04)	31.4% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 52.55% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.17% (

-0.14)

51.83% (

0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.41% (

-0.12)

73.59% (

0.13)

Rosario Central Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.79% (

-0.09)

24.21% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.45% (

-0.14)

58.55% (

0.14)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.34% (

-0.05)

30.66% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.09% (

-0.06)

66.91% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Rosario Central 42.44%

Penarol 31.4%

Draw 26.16%

Rosario Central	Draw	Penarol
1-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.83% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.47% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.17% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.25% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.71% Total : 42.44%	1-1 @ 12.44% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.16%	0-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 7.36% 0-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.9% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.04% ( 0) Other @ 3.08% Total : 31.4%