Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 4, 2023 at 11pm UK

Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López

Patronato
4 - 1
Melgar

Cruz Esquivel (4', 70'), Ojeda (59'), Levato (86')
Cruz Esquivel (43'), Geminiani (67')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Martinez (53')
Cavero (32'), Soso (33'), Orzan (41'), Galeano (90+4'), Deneumostier (90+2')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Patronato and Melgar.

Form, Standings, Stats

Patronato

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Olimpia 1-0 Patronato
Wednesday, April 19 at 1am in Copa Libertadores

Melgar

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Atletico Nacional 3-1 Melgar
Friday, April 21 at 1am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Patronato win with a probability of 44.34%. A win for Melgar had a probability of 28.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Patronato win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest Melgar win was 0-1 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Patronato would win this match.

Result
Patronato	Draw	Melgar
44.34% ( -0.19)	27.64% ( 0.03)	28.02% ( 0.16)

Both teams to score 46.52% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.24% (

-0.03)

58.75% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.72% (

-0.02)

79.28% (

0.02)

Patronato Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.63% (

-0.11)

26.37% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.48% (

-0.14)

61.51% (

0.15)

Melgar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.18% (

0.11)

36.82% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.39% (

0.11)

73.61% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Patronato 44.34%

Melgar 28.02%

Draw 27.64%

Patronato	Draw	Melgar
1-0 @ 12.94% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.63% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.83% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 3.83% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.91% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.28% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.28% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.02% Total : 44.34%	1-1 @ 12.93% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.31% ( 0) Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.64%	0-1 @ 9.7% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.46% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.82% Total : 28.02%