Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Apr 5, 2023 at 11pm UK

Estadio Presbitero Bartolome Grella

Patronato
1 - 2
Atletico Nacional

Levato (2')
Domingo (14'), Levato (23'), Vazquez (45'), Ruiz (75'), Sosa (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Pabon (77' pen., 79')
Gomez (52'), Zapata (68')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Patronato and Atletico Nacional.

Form, Standings, Stats

Patronato

All competitions

Last Game: Patronato 3-2 Huracan
Sunday, October 23 at 9pm in Argentine Primera Division

Atletico Nacional

All competitions

Last Game: Atletico Nacional 1-1 Olimpia
Friday, March 4 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Patronato win with a probability of 36.19%. A win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 35.16% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Patronato win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.61%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Atletico Nacional win was 0-1 (11.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.

Result
Patronato	Draw	Atletico Nacional
36.19% ( -0.81)	28.64% ( 0.32)	35.16% ( 0.48)

Both teams to score 45.89% (

-0.91)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.42% (

-1.13)

60.58% (

1.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.32% (

-0.86)

80.68% (

0.86)

Patronato Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.08% (

-1.08)

31.92% (

1.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.63% (

-1.25)

68.37% (

1.25)

Atletico Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.41% (

-0.26)

32.59% (

0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.87% (

-0.3)

69.13% (

0.3)

Score Analysis

Patronato 36.19%

Atletico Nacional 35.16%

Draw 28.63%

Patronato	Draw	Atletico Nacional
1-0 @ 11.87% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 7.61% ( -0.19) 2-0 @ 6.78% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 2.9% ( -0.16) 3-0 @ 2.58% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.83% Total : 36.19%	1-1 @ 13.31% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 10.4% ( 0.43) 2-2 @ 4.26% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.63%	0-1 @ 11.66% ( 0.41) 1-2 @ 7.47% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.54% ( 0.18) 1-3 @ 2.79% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.67% Total : 35.16%