Copa Libertadores | Second Round | 1st Leg

Feb 22, 2023 at 10pm UK

Estadio Olimpico Atahualpa

El Nacional
2 - 2
Medellin

(Independiente Medellin win 4-3 on aggregate)

Palacios (55'), Carrillo (67' pen.)
Chala (26')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Valencia (19'), Londono (87')
Moreno (14'), Ricaurte (72'), Palacios (84')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Second Round clash between El Nacional and Independiente Medellin.

Form, Standings, Stats

El Nacional

Last Game: El Nacional 3-1 Nacional
Thursday, February 16 at 12am in Copa Libertadores

Independiente Medellin

Last Game: Medellin 1-1 Guairena
Wednesday, May 25 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a El Nacional win with a probability of 51.56%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 22.77%.

The most likely scoreline for a El Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Independiente Medellin win it was 0-1 (7.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.

Result
El Nacional	Draw	Independiente Medellin
51.56% ( 1.33)	25.67% ( -0.27)	22.77% ( -1.06)

Both teams to score 47.53% (

-0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.81% (

0.09)

55.19% (

-0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.58% (

0.07)

76.43% (

-0.07)

El Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.56% (

0.61)

21.45% (

-0.6)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.54% (

0.93)

54.47% (

-0.92)

Independiente Medellin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.51% (

-0.95)

39.5% (

0.96)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.82% (

-0.9)

76.19% (

0.91)

Score Analysis

El Nacional 51.56%

Independiente Medellin 22.77%

Draw 25.67%

El Nacional	Draw	Independiente Medellin
1-0 @ 13.04% ( 0.2) 2-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.33) 2-1 @ 9.33% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.26) 3-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.98% ( 0.13) 4-1 @ 1.84% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.17% Total : 51.56%	1-1 @ 12.11% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 8.47% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.33% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.75% Total : 25.67%	0-1 @ 7.87% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.21) 0-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.21) 1-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.1) Other @ 1.4% Total : 22.77%