Copa Libertadores | First Round | 1st Leg

Feb 9, 2023 at 12am UK

Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte

Nacional
1 - 6
El Nacional

Prost (45+1')
Prost (8'), Andia (35')

FT(HT: 1-5)

Ordonez (5', 38'), Chala (13'), Carrillo (16'), Solis (45+4'), Asprilla (89')
Parrales (26'), Carrillo (43'), Nazareno (87'), Micolta (88')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores First Round clash between Nacional Potosi and El Nacional.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional Potosi

Last Game: Nacional 1-2 Guabira
Wednesday, April 7 at 11.15pm in Copa Sudamericana

El Nacional

Last Game: El Nacional 2-2 Fenix
Friday, February 21 at 12.30am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional Potosi win with a probability of 49.56%. A win for El Nacional had a probability of 26.31% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional Potosi win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest El Nacional win was 0-1 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0% likelihood.

Result
Nacional Potosi	Draw	El Nacional
49.56% ( 0.11)	24.13% ( -0.03)	26.31% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 55.85% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.01% (

0.06)

45.99% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.7% (

0.06)

68.3% (

-0.06)

Nacional Potosi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.38% (

0.07)

18.62% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.08% (

0.12)

49.92% (

-0.11)

El Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.63% (

-0.03)

31.37% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.26% (

-0.04)

67.74% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Nacional Potosi 49.56%

El Nacional 26.31%

Draw 24.13%

Nacional Potosi	Draw	El Nacional
1-0 @ 9.82% ( -0) 2-1 @ 9.57% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.25% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.36% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.62% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.25% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.33% Total : 49.56%	1-1 @ 11.38% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.84% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.55% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.13%	0-1 @ 6.77% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.6% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.93% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.14% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.81% Total : 26.31%