Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Aug 5, 2022 at 1.30am UK

Arena da Baixada

Athletico PR
0 - 0
Estudiantes

(Athletico Paranaense win 1-0 on aggregate)

Fernandinho (19'), Moura (67')

Piatti (37'), Rogel (62'), Castro (69'), Zuqui (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Libertadores clash between Athletico Paranaense and Estudiantes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estudiantes

Last Six:

Last Game: Estudiantes 0-0 Banfield
Saturday, July 30 at 10pm in Argentine Primera Division

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Racing Club	14	15	30
2	Estudiantes	13	15	28
3	River Plate	13	18	26

We said: Athletico Paranaense 1-0 Estudiantes

The hosts come into this match in better form, and we expect them to secure a narrow victory to protect in the second leg. Estudiantes have been in great form throughout the Copa Libertadores this season so will be no pushovers, especially with a more defensive system likely to be on the cards. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 56.65%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Estudiantes had a probability of 19.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.73%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.27%), while for a Estudiantes win it was 0-1 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result
Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Estudiantes
56.65% ( -0.09)	23.75% ( 0.05)	19.6% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 48.82% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.73% (

-0.15)

51.27% (

0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.9% (

-0.13)

73.1% (

0.13)

Athletico Paranaense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.09% (

-0.09)

17.91% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.28% (

-0.15)

48.72% (

0.15)

Estudiantes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.47% (

-0.05)

40.53% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.87% (

-0.04)

77.13% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Athletico Paranaense 56.64%

Estudiantes 19.6%

Draw 23.74%

Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Estudiantes
1-0 @ 12.48% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 10.73% 2-1 @ 9.7% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.15% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.56% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.65% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.51% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.5% Total : 56.64%	1-1 @ 11.27% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.26% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.83% Total : 23.74%	0-1 @ 6.56% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.09% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.96% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.53% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0) Other @ 2.14% Total : 19.6%