Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg

Jul 8, 2022 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Único

Estudiantes
3 - 0
Fortaleza

(Estudiantes win 4-1 on aggregate)

Castro (9', 47'), Zapiola (57')
Zuqui (45+4'), Noguera (83')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Capixaba (11'), Moises (60'), Welison (62'), Romarinho (81')
Pikachu (22')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Libertadores clash between Estudiantes and Fortaleza, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estudiantes

Last Six:

Last Game: Arsenal 2-1 Estudiantes
Monday, July 4 at 9pm in Argentine Primera Division

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Racing Club	14	15	30
2	Estudiantes	13	15	28
3	River Plate	13	18	26

We said: Estudiantes 1-0 Fortaleza

Fatigue seems to have taken a toll on each team, though Estudiantes have been at their best at home, which should be just enough to see them through to the quarter-finals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 59.84%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 18.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.62%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estudiantes would win this match.

Result
Estudiantes	Draw	Fortaleza
59.84% ( 0.01)	22.05% ( 0.01)	18.1% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 51.44% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.56% (

-0.07)

46.44% (

0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.27% (

-0.07)

68.72% (

0.07)

Estudiantes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.88% (

-0.02)

15.11% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.33% (

-0.04)

43.67% (

0.04)

Fortaleza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.6% (

-0.07)

39.39% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.91% (

-0.06)

76.09% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Estudiantes 59.83%

Fortaleza 18.1%

Draw 22.05%

Estudiantes	Draw	Fortaleza
1-0 @ 11.25% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 10.62% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.7% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.24% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.16% 4-1 @ 2.95% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.2% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.11% ( -0) Other @ 2.43% Total : 59.83%	1-1 @ 10.48% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.95% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.05%	0-1 @ 5.55% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.58% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.52% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.15% Total : 18.1%