Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Jul 1, 2022 at 1.30am UK

Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Fortaleza
1 - 1
Estudiantes

(Estudiantes win 4-1 on aggregate)

Romero (55')
Capixaba (34'), Marcelo (85')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Diaz (63')
Noguera (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Libertadores clash between Fortaleza and Estudiantes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estudiantes

Last Six:

Last Game: Estudiantes 0-2 Newell's OB
Saturday, June 25 at 10pm in Argentine Primera Division

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Racing Club	14	15	30
2	Estudiantes	13	15	28
3	River Plate	13	18	26

We said: Fortaleza 2-1 Estudiantes

While Fortaleza's form on the domestic front has been more than concerning, Vojvoda's men have shown themselves to be a different side in South America's premier competition this season, and they will be keen to gain an advantage on home turf. We back them to narrowly triumph on Friday, with everything still in the balance for next week's second leg in Argentina. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 41%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.54%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 1-0 (9.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.

Result
Fortaleza	Draw	Estudiantes
32.02% ( 0.02)	26.98% ( 0.01)	41% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 50.26% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.13% (

-0.04)

54.87% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.83% (

-0.03)

76.16% (

0.03)

Fortaleza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.22% (

-0.01)

31.78% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.79% (

-0.01)

68.21% (

0.01)

Estudiantes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.67% (

-0.03)

26.32% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.54% (

-0.05)

61.46% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Fortaleza 32.02%

Estudiantes 41%

Draw 26.98%

Fortaleza	Draw	Estudiantes
1-0 @ 9.59% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.34% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.5% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.8% 3-0 @ 2.1% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0) Other @ 2.82% Total : 32.02%	1-1 @ 12.8% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.37% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.9% ( -0) Other @ 0.92% Total : 26.98%	0-1 @ 11.16% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.54% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.45% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.8% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.32% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.18% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.27% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.11% ( -0) Other @ 2.18% Total : 41%