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Stuttgart
Bundesliga | Gameweek 21
Feb 11, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Mercedes-Benz-Arena
Mainz logo

Stuttgart
3 - 1
Mainz

Mittelstadt (45+2'), Leweling (45+4'), Undav (73')
Karazor (82')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Ajorque (76')
Guilavogui (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Stuttgart and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Union Berlin
Wednesday, February 7 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Stuttgart 2-1 Mainz 05

Despite struggling to pick up wins and score goals this season, Mainz have been defensively secure since Siewert took over in November, only conceding eight goals in his 11 league games in charge. However, they will face the third highest goalscorers in the Bundesliga when they take on Stuttgart on Sunday, and we are struggling to envisage a scenario in which that run of conceding no more than one goal in a game under Siewert does not come to an end for the visitors. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 56.4%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 21.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.43%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.

Result
StuttgartDrawMainz 05
56.4% (-0.409 -0.41) 22.14% (0.124 0.12) 21.45% (0.29 0.29)
Both teams to score 56.78% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.91% (-0.182 -0.18)42.08% (0.186 0.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.51% (-0.184 -0.18)64.49% (0.188 0.19)
Stuttgart Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.24% (-0.191 -0.19)14.76% (0.197 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57% (-0.372 -0.37)42.99% (0.377 0.38)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.61% (0.17100000000001 0.17)33.39% (-0.166 -0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.98% (0.184 0.18)70.01% (-0.181 -0.18)
Score Analysis
    Stuttgart 56.4%
    Mainz 05 21.45%
    Draw 22.14%
StuttgartDrawMainz 05
2-1 @ 9.89% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-0 @ 9.43% (0.013 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.02% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
3-1 @ 6.31% (-0.05 -0.05)
3-0 @ 5.75% (-0.072 -0.07)
3-2 @ 3.46% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 3.02% (-0.045 -0.04)
4-0 @ 2.75% (-0.054 -0.05)
4-2 @ 1.66% (-0.017 -0.02)
5-1 @ 1.16% (-0.026 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.05% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 56.4%
1-1 @ 10.34% (0.06 0.06)
2-2 @ 5.43% (0.018999999999999 0.02)
0-0 @ 4.93% (0.040999999999999 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.27% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 22.14%
1-2 @ 5.67% (0.058999999999999 0.06)
0-1 @ 5.41% (0.07 0.07)
0-2 @ 2.96% (0.051 0.05)
1-3 @ 2.07% (0.031 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.98% (0.016 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.08% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 2.27%
Total : 21.45%

How you voted: Stuttgart vs Mainz

Stuttgart
89.4%
Draw
7.1%
Mainz 05
3.5%
85
Head to Head
Sep 16, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 4
Mainz
1-3
Stuttgart
Barreiro (69')
Caci (11')
Guirassy (56', 84', 90+7')
Stiller (60'), Anton (67')
May 21, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 33
Mainz
1-4
Stuttgart
Ingvartsen (23')
Kohr (61'), Bell (75'), Ajorque (90+5')
Endo (41'), Guirassy (64'), Fuhrich (78'), Coulibaly (90+1')
Endo (73')
Jan 21, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 16
Stuttgart
1-1
Mainz
Guirassy (36')
Ingvartsen (40' pen.)
Apr 16, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 30
Mainz
0-0
Stuttgart
Matarazzo (45+2'), Stenzel (70')
Nov 26, 2021 7.30pm
Gameweek 13
Stuttgart
2-1
Mainz
Ito (21'), Sosa (51')
Mangala (36'), Sosa (90+2')
Hack (39')
Caricol (9'), Boetius (90+5')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt95222314917
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Stuttgart93421716113
11Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
12Augsburg103341320-712
13Heidenheim93151212010
14Wolfsburg92341617-19
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202


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