Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 42.53%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 32.43% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.96%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-0 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.