Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 16

Dec 19, 2023 at 7.30pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
1 - 1
Mainz

Brandt (29')

FT(HT: 1-1)

van den Berg (43')
Bell (39'), Burkardt (85'), Krauss (90'), Barkok (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Augsburg 1-1 Dortmund
Saturday, December 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Mainz 05

All competitions

Last Game: Mainz 0-1 Heidenheim
Saturday, December 16 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Mainz 05

Ending a tumultuous year that has featured a painful title failure but more recently seen unexpected success in Europe, Borussia Dortmund should secure maximum points against goal-shy Mainz 05. Gaining a small slice of revenge for May's final-day failure, BVB can score at least once - and even their shaky defence can hold out against the Bundesliga's second-weakest attack. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 47.68%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 30.26% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.25%) and 2-0 (6.02%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Mainz 05
47.68% ( 1.49)	22.05% ( 0.11)	30.26% ( -1.6)

Both teams to score 66.4% (

-1.36)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.56% (

-1.4)

33.44% (

1.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.77% (

-1.61)

55.22% (

1.61)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.42% (

-0.02)

14.58% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.35% (

-0.03)

42.65% (

0.02)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.73% (

-1.57)

22.26% (

1.57)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.29% (

-2.42)

55.7% (

2.42)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 47.68%

Mainz 05 30.26%

Draw 22.05%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Mainz 05
2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.23) 1-0 @ 6.25% ( 0.44) 2-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.43) 3-1 @ 5.8% ( 0.14) 3-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 3.86% ( 0.27) 4-1 @ 2.79% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.13) 5-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.03) 4-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.48% Total : 47.68%	1-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 6.79% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.23) 3-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.16) Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.05%	1-2 @ 7.05% ( -0.15) 0-1 @ 4.88% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 3.53% ( -0.25) 2-3 @ 3.4% ( -0.25) 0-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.13) 1-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.17) 2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.16) Other @ 3.3% Total : 30.26%