Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Nov 28, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan
1 - 3
Dortmund

Chukwueze (37')
Tomori (67')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Reus (10' pen.), Bynoe-Gittens (59'), Adeyemi (69')
Can (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: AC Milan 1-0 Fiorentina
Saturday, November 25 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Dortmund 4-2 Borussia M'bach
Saturday, November 25 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: AC Milan 1-1 Borussia Dortmund

Another close-fought contest is set to unfold between two well-matched sides, following their tense goalless stalemate in October. Both clubs' Group F fate may be decided on the final matchday following a low-scoring draw at San Siro. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 44.84%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 31.72% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
44.84% ( 0.02)	23.43% ( -0.13)	31.72% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 62.06% (

0.5)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.52% (

0.64)

39.48% (

-0.64)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.17% (

0.67)

61.82% (

-0.67)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.04% (

0.27)

17.96% (

-0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.21% (

0.45)

48.79% (

-0.45)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.64% (

0.37)

24.36% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.24% (

0.52)

58.76% (

-0.52)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 44.84%

Borussia Dortmund 31.72%

Draw 23.43%

AC Milan	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 9.11% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.51% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 6.45% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 5.21% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.68% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 2.24% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.59% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.78% Total : 44.84%	1-1 @ 10.6% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 6.43% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 4.37% ( -0.13) 3-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.43%	1-2 @ 7.49% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.18% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 3.53% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 3.03% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 2.05% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.07% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.77% Total : 31.72%