Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Oct 25, 2023 at 8pm UK

Parc des Princes

PSG
3 - 0
AC Milan

Mbappe (32'), Kolo (53'), Kang-in (89')
Hakimi (16'), Dembele (44')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Thiaw (4'), Krunic (7'), Tomori (61'), Kalulu (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Paris Saint-Germain and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Paris Saint-Germain

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: PSG 3-0 Strasbourg
Saturday, October 21 at 4pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

AC Milan

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: AC Milan 0-1 Juventus
Sunday, October 22 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Paris Saint-Germain 1-1 AC Milan

Aside from their implosion in the Derby della Madonnina, Milan know how to keep things tight when required and came close to posting a fourth straight clean sheet in all competitions last weekend. Therefore, even PSG's attacking stars may find it tough to score more than once, and a share of the spoils would perfectly set up next month's return. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 48.81%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 27.26% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.26%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (6.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.

Result
Paris Saint-Germain	Draw	AC Milan
48.81% ( -0.43)	23.92% ( 0.11)	27.26% ( 0.32)

Both teams to score 57.36% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.63% (

-0.25)

44.37% (

0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.25% (

-0.24)

66.74% (

0.24)

Paris Saint-Germain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.71% (

-0.27)

18.29% (

0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.64% (

-0.45)

49.36% (

0.45)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.2% (

0.11)

29.79% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.13% (

0.13)

65.87% (

-0.14)

Score Analysis

Paris Saint-Germain 48.81%

AC Milan 27.26%

Draw 23.92%

Paris Saint-Germain	Draw	AC Milan
2-1 @ 9.52% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.86% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 4.45% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.29% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 1.89% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.49% Total : 48.81%	1-1 @ 11.2% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.77% 0-0 @ 5.45% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.92%	1-2 @ 6.79% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 6.6% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 4% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.74% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.2% Total : 27.26%