Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 10

Nov 4, 2023 at 5.30pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
0 - 4
Bayern

Hummels (61'), Ryerson (74'), Sabitzer (76')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Upamecano (4'), Kane (9', 72', 90+3')
Sane (22'), Tuchel (42'), Laimer (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Dortmund 1-0 Hoffenheim
Wednesday, November 1 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bayern Munich

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Saarbrucken 2-1 Bayern
Wednesday, November 1 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Bayern Munich

At least four goals have been scored in each of the last eight meetings between Dortmund and Bayern, and another entertaining end-to-end contest could be on the cards on Saturday. Dortmund will look to take advantage of Bayern's midweek wobble, but we believe that the perennial Bundesliga champions will bounce back to claim all three points, especially is Kane continues his fine form in front of goal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 35.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.29%) and 0-2 (5.47%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Bayern Munich
35.2% ( 1.03)	22.87% ( 0.48)	41.93% ( -1.51)

Both teams to score 65.46% (

-1.58)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.46% (

-2.17)

35.54% (

2.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.41% (

-2.45)

57.59% (

2.44)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.4% (

-0.48)

20.6% (

0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.85% (

-0.77)

53.14% (

0.77)

Bayern Munich Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.45% (

-1.48)

17.55% (

1.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.91% (

-2.63)

48.08% (

2.63)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 35.2%

Bayern Munich 41.93%

Draw 22.87%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Bayern Munich
2-1 @ 7.85% ( 0.25) 1-0 @ 5.71% ( 0.53) 2-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.35) 3-1 @ 4.14% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.15) 4-1 @ 1.63% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.02% Total : 35.2%	1-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.46) 2-2 @ 6.83% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 3.62% ( 0.38) 3-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.18) Other @ 0.4% Total : 22.87%	1-2 @ 8.65% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 6.29% ( 0.38) 0-2 @ 5.47% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 5.02% ( -0.26) 2-3 @ 3.96% ( -0.27) 0-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 2.18% ( -0.23) 2-4 @ 1.72% ( -0.21) 0-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.12) 3-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.13) Other @ 3.17% Total : 41.93%