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Bundesliga | Gameweek 8
Oct 21, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
OPEL ARENA
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Mainz
1 - 3
Bayern

Caci (43')
Ajorque (45+2'), Kohr (49'), Bell (65')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Coman (11'), Kane (16'), Goretzka (59')
de Ligt (27'), Laimer (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Borussia M'bach 2-2 Mainz
Friday, October 6 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 3-0 Freiburg
Sunday, October 8 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Mainz 05 0-2 Bayern Munich

 Even with half an eye on Tuesday's Champions League clash with Galatasaray, it should be a straightforward matter for Bayern Munich to halt their losing streak in Mainz this weekend. While the champions can score from all angles, their hosts have been awful at the back this term and cannot hope to keep Bayern at bay for a full 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 69.74%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 13.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.54%) and 0-1 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.82%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 2-1 (3.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
13.1% (0.221 0.22) 17.16% (0.192 0.19) 69.74% (-0.416 -0.42)
Both teams to score 56.57% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.15% (-0.398 -0.4)33.85% (0.397 0.4)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.3% (-0.454 -0.45)55.7% (0.452 0.45)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.98% (0.058 0.06)38.02% (-0.061 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.21% (0.057000000000002 0.06)74.79% (-0.057999999999993 -0.06)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.27% (-0.193 -0.19)8.72% (0.1919 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70% (-0.47199999999999 -0.47)30% (0.47 0.47)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 13.1%
    Bayern Munich 69.74%
    Draw 17.16%
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 3.78% (0.055 0.06)
1-0 @ 3.21% (0.071 0.07)
2-0 @ 1.55% (0.037 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.49% (0.011 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.22% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 13.1%
1-1 @ 7.82% (0.102 0.1)
2-2 @ 4.61% (0.026000000000001 0.03)
0-0 @ 3.32% (0.068 0.07)
3-3 @ 1.21% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 17.16%
0-2 @ 9.87% (0.025 0.03)
1-2 @ 9.54% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-1 @ 8.09% (0.094 0.09)
0-3 @ 8.02% (-0.052999999999999 -0.05)
1-3 @ 7.76% (-0.038 -0.04)
0-4 @ 4.89% (-0.077 -0.08)
1-4 @ 4.73% (-0.067 -0.07)
2-3 @ 3.75% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-5 @ 2.39% (-0.06 -0.06)
1-5 @ 2.31% (-0.054 -0.05)
2-4 @ 2.29% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-5 @ 1.12% (-0.024 -0.02)
0-6 @ 0.97% (-0.034 -0.03)
1-6 @ 0.94% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 69.74%

How you voted: Mainz vs Bayern

Mainz 05
8.0%
Draw
8.0%
Bayern Munich
84.0%
50
Head to Head
Apr 22, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 29
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Ajorque (65'), Barreiro (73'), Caricol (79')
Mane (29')
> Preview
Feb 1, 2023 7.45pm
Round of 16
Mainz
0-4
Bayern
Maxim Choupo-Moting (17'), Musiala (30'), Sane (44'), Davies (83')
> Preview
Oct 29, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 12
Bayern
6-2
Mainz
Gnabry (5'), Musiala (28'), Mane (43'), Goretzka (58'), Tel (79'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (86')
Widmer (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82')
> Preview
Apr 30, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 32
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Burkardt (18'), Niakhate (27'), Barreiro (57')
Lewandowski (33')
Kimmich (43'), Hernandez (65'), Pavard (73'), Sane (86')
> Preview
Dec 11, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 15
Bayern
2-1
Mainz
Coman (53'), Musiala (74')
Musiala (27'), Sane (36'), Hernandez (56')
Onisiwo (22')
Stach (59'), Hack (89'), Stoger (90+1')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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