MX23RW : Tuesday, November 5 12:44:37| >> :60:315:315:
Mainz logo
DFB-Pokal | Round of 16
Feb 1, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
OPEL ARENA
Bayern logo

Mainz
0 - 4
Bayern


Widmer (24'), Hack (49')
Svensson (82'), Hack (86')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Maxim Choupo-Moting (17'), Musiala (30'), Sane (44'), Davies (83')
Muller (38')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's DFB-Pokal clash between Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Mainz 5-2 VfL Bochum
Saturday, January 28 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 1-1 Frankfurt
Saturday, January 28 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Mainz 05 1-2 Bayern Munich

Bayern will almost certainly travel to Mainz low on confidence given their recent run of draws, which has seen their healthy lead at the top of the Bundesliga almost evaporate. However, the Bavarians are likely to have too much quality for their opponents even if Nagelsmann does rotate as expected ahead of a busy schedule, but Mainz should make their opponents work hard for their victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 69.42%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 14.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.07%) and 1-3 (7.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.93%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 2-1 (3.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
14.13% (0.084 0.08) 16.45% (0.116 0.12) 69.42% (-0.20099999999999 -0.2)
Both teams to score 62.75% (-0.247 -0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
72.39% (-0.395 -0.39)27.61% (0.394 0.39)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
51.74% (-0.496 -0.5)48.26% (0.495 0.49)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.64% (-0.166 -0.17)32.36% (0.166 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.12% (-0.191 -0.19)68.88% (0.191 0.19)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.77% (-0.136 -0.14)7.23% (0.136 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
73.79% (-0.358 -0.36)26.21% (0.359 0.36)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 14.13%
    Bayern Munich 69.42%
    Draw 16.45%
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 3.91% (0.03 0.03)
1-0 @ 2.64% (0.051 0.05)
3-2 @ 1.93% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
2-0 @ 1.49% (0.022 0.02)
3-1 @ 1.47% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 14.13%
1-1 @ 6.93% (0.085 0.09)
2-2 @ 5.14% (0.0029999999999992 0)
0-0 @ 2.34% (0.056 0.06)
3-3 @ 1.69% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 0.35%
Total : 16.45%
1-2 @ 9.11% (0.046999999999999 0.05)
0-2 @ 8.07% (0.077999999999999 0.08)
1-3 @ 7.98% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-3 @ 7.07% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
0-1 @ 6.15% (0.103 0.1)
1-4 @ 5.24% (-0.048 -0.05)
0-4 @ 4.64% (-0.021 -0.02)
2-3 @ 4.5% (-0.03 -0.03)
2-4 @ 2.96% (-0.041 -0.04)
1-5 @ 2.75% (-0.045 -0.04)
0-5 @ 2.44% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-5 @ 1.55% (-0.033 -0.03)
1-6 @ 1.21% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-4 @ 1.11% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-6 @ 1.07% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 69.42%

How you voted: Mainz vs Bayern

Mainz 05
12.4%
Draw
11.4%
Bayern Munich
76.2%
105
Head to Head
Oct 29, 2022 2.30pm
Bayern
6-2
Mainz
Gnabry (5'), Musiala (28'), Mane (43'), Goretzka (58'), Tel (79'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (86')
Widmer (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82')
Fernandes (34')
Apr 30, 2022 2.30pm
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Burkardt (18'), Niakhate (27'), Barreiro (57')
Lewandowski (33')
Kimmich (43'), Hernandez (65'), Pavard (73'), Sane (86')
Dec 11, 2021 2.30pm
Bayern
2-1
Mainz
Coman (53'), Musiala (74')
Musiala (27'), Sane (36'), Hernandez (56')
Onisiwo (22')
Stach (59'), Hack (89'), Stoger (90+1')
Apr 24, 2021 2.30pm
Mainz
2-1
Bayern
Burkardt (3'), Quaison (37')
Mwene (58'), St Juste (59'), da Costa (87')
Lewandowski (90+4')
Boateng (36'), Goretzka (41'), Alaba (42'), Lewandowski (73')
Jan 3, 2021 5pm
Bayern
5-2
Mainz
Kimmich (50'), Sane (55'), Sule (70'), Lewandowski (76' pen., 83')
Boateng (32'), Alaba (62')
Burkardt (32'), Hack (44')
Boetius (59')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool108111961325
2Manchester CityMan City1072121111023
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest10541147719
4Chelsea105322012818
5Arsenal105321711618
6Aston Villa105321715218
7Tottenham HotspurSpurs1051422111116
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton104421714316
9Fulham104331413115
10Bournemouth104331312115
11Newcastle UnitedNewcastle104331010015
12Brentford104151920-113
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd10334912-312
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham103251319-611
15Leicester CityLeicester102441418-410
16Everton102351017-79
17Crystal Palace10145813-57
18Ipswich TownIpswich100551021-115
19Southampton10118719-124
20Wolverhampton WanderersWolves100371427-133


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!