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Bundesliga | Gameweek 18
Jan 28, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Coface Arena
VfL Bochum

Mainz
5 - 2
VfL Bochum

Jae-sung (1'), Widmer (17'), Onisiwo (28', 57', 87')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Kunde (70'), Masovic (72')
Schlotterbeck (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and VfL Bochum, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Mainz 1-2 Dortmund
Wednesday, January 25 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

VfL Bochum

All competitions
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 2-0 VfL Bochum
Wednesday, January 25 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Mainz 05 1-1 VfL Bochum

 With both teams defeated in midweek, we can envisage each manager aiming to keep things tight at the MEWA Arena on Saturday, especially given their lowly positions in the league table. As such, it would be little surprise to see Mainz draw 1-1 for the fifth time already this season, which would represent a decent result for both teams in their current situations. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 52.51%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 23.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a VfL Bochum win it was 0-1 (6.77%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.

Result
Mainz 05DrawVfL Bochum
52.51% (-0.14299999999999 -0.14) 24.11% (0.029 0.03) 23.37% (0.116 0.12)
Both teams to score 52.85% (0.044000000000004 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.49% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)48.5% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.37% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)70.63% (0.007000000000005 0.01)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.57% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)18.43% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.4% (-0.098999999999997 -0.1)49.6% (0.099999999999994 0.1)
VfL Bochum Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.8% (0.101 0.1)35.2% (-0.099999999999994 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.04% (0.106 0.11)71.95% (-0.105 -0.11)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 52.51%
    VfL Bochum 23.37%
    Draw 24.1%
Mainz 05DrawVfL Bochum
1-0 @ 10.97% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.69% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-0 @ 9.28% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-1 @ 5.46% (-0.014 -0.01)
3-0 @ 5.23% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-2 @ 2.85% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 2.31% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-0 @ 2.21% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.21% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.32%
Total : 52.51%
1-1 @ 11.45% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.49% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-2 @ 5.06% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
3-3 @ 0.99% (0.003 0)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 24.1%
0-1 @ 6.77% (0.02 0.02)
1-2 @ 5.98% (0.024 0.02)
0-2 @ 3.54% (0.021 0.02)
1-3 @ 2.08% (0.014 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.76% (0.008 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.23% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 23.37%

How you voted: Mainz vs VfL Bochum

Mainz 05
56.4%
Draw
30.8%
VfL Bochum
12.8%
39
Head to Head
Aug 6, 2022 2.30pm
VfL Bochum
1-2
Mainz
Stoger (39')
Stafylidis (13'), Ganvoula (90+3')
Onisiwo (26', 77')
Stach (33'), Bell (64'), Burgzorg (84')
Jan 18, 2022 7.45pm
Last 16
VfL Bochum
3-1
Mainz
Pantovic (56' pen., 59'), Lowen (80')
Onisiwo (36')
Jae-sung (14'), Barreiro (55'), Bell (65'), Stach (75')
Jan 15, 2022 2.30pm
Mainz
1-0
VfL Bochum
St Juste (48')
Stach (55'), Stoger (85'), Nebel (86'), Svensson (88')

Bella-Kotchap (70'), Gamboa (76'), Rexhbecaj (89')
Aug 21, 2021 2.30pm
VfL Bochum
2-0
Mainz
Holtmann (21'), Polter (56')
Rexhbecaj (54'), Riemann (87'), Asano (90+3'), Zoller (90+4')

Boetius (56'), Barreiro (67'), Kohr (89')
Dec 23, 2020 7.45pm
Second Round
Mainz
2-2
VfL Bochum
 VfL Bochum win 3-0 on penalties
Boetius (7'), Latza (55')
Mateta (90+4'), Ji (100')
Holtmann (66'), Tesche (90+4')
Gamboa (2'), Leitsch (32'), Blum (75')
Riemann (95')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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